Since the SCOTUS decision in early summer, the headwinds have shifted dramatically as midterms approach. Dems, once on shaky ground, now appear to be favored for winning a Senate majority.
Do Dems also have a chance to hold the House?
(THREAD)
(2) "Dems are defending a slim 5-seat majority in the House. Analysts still regard the GOP as the favorites and history shows the president’s party does not tend to do well in a first midterm."
The path to holding the House is narrow but possible.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
(3) The path runs through some surprising places, like California where Biden's rising popularity may shore up voter turnout
Races to watch: Steel & Kim in Orange County, Calvert in Riverside County, Garcia in LA County & Valadao in San Joaquin Valley
calmatters.org/commentary/202…
(4) Because of gerrymandering, the GOP path to a House majority is basically a walk in the park.
But Dems don't actually have to flip Trump seats. They just have to win 30 districts Biden carried by less than eight percentage points in 2020.
brennancenter.org/our-work/analy…
(5) This is tougher than it sounds since midterms tend to favor the party not in power.
BUT Republicans seem to be throwing away voter support (and funding) with both hands as they embrace extreme stances on issues like marriage equality and abortiion.
twitter.com/Redistrict/sta…
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict
Aug 24 22
View on Twitter
In May, @Cook Political Report's House outlook was a GOP gain of 20-35 seats. Based on recent developments, we've revised our outlook to a 10-20 seat GOP gain, w/ Dems maintaining control not out of the question. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
(6) The best indication Dems have a chance? The math.
“Special elections so far this cycle are consistent with Democrats winning 51.3% of the two-party vote for the House. That is almost exactly the threshold they need to keep their majority."
washingtonmonthly.com/2022/08/26/how…
(7) In addition to improving odds at holding Congress, Dems may gain crucial seats on the state level.
Within the next decade, Dems could flip legislatures in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. 
cnn.com/2022/09/13/pol…
cnn.com/2022/09/13/pol…
(8) The clearest indication that Democrats may hold the House also lies in Nancy Pelosi publicly vowing they will hold the majority.
Pelosi has seen her fair share of midterm elections and she doesn't often get these things wrong.
nydailynews.com/news/politics/…
(9) 11 House races that may determine the path to holding a Dem majority?
CA-22 (Salas), CO-8 (Caraveo), ME-2 (Golden), NH-1 (Pappas), NJ-7 (Malinowski), NM-2 (Vasquez ), NV-1 (Titus), OH-1 (Landsman), Texas-28 (Cuellar), VA-7 (Spanberger), MI-7 (Slotkin)
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
(10) Dems could hold the House majority, expand their Senate majority, and start codifying Roe V Wade into the law of the land in 2023.
The odds aren't in Dems favor, but the votes (and the path to victory) are there.
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
(END) Thaks for stopping by for our Sunday thread, suggestion courtesy of @Ed Kamen . Come back next weekend and we'll do this again.
Like threads like this and want to keep them coming? You can support my work here:
patreon.com/kazweida
Kaz Weida
@kazweida
Words Are My Thing | #MeToo | Journalist | Photographer | 🏳️🌈 | @thepennyhoarder | @popmech | @ranttmedia | @cityweekly | https://t.co/tNtHUV6E2B
Missing some tweets in this thread? Or failed to load images or videos? You can try to .