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Dr. Ian Garner

@irgarner

Sep 23

5 tweets
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Depressing prediction: after a few days of turmoil and protest, things will die down in Russia. The flow of men leaving will stop. People will be mobilized and sent to the front, just as underprepared as those already there. They won’t revolt en masse.

A few will surrender. We’ll get very excited and say that heralds the downfall of the Russian state. But the rest will do what they’re told.

We’re making a *lot* of excited guesses about regime stability and consequences based on a wave of social media virality created mostly by those in the West.

This is the MO of Putin’s state: clumsy, messy, controversial, but somehow always bungles through problems thanks to its media networks and enthusiastic supporters.

If change comes, it’s certainly not coming from below. Those boys being herded onto planes and buses don’t look desperate to seize any chance to make their escape.

Dr. Ian Garner

@irgarner

Russia media watcher | “Stalingrad Lives!” available for order: https://t.co/JVcKr9TgiQ | Coming 2023: "Z Generation" | 🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇧

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