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Nov 25
23 tweets

$pthrf Thread on why being short $panr as the company enters an intense period of consequential news is going up against the clear balance of probabilities. (a) The flow test results from Alkaid-2, #panr's first production well, are imminent. The flow test will not,...1/ itself, be a binary event for the $panr investment case (there are four other distinct reservoirs on #panr's acreage) but it is obvious the initial flow results from A2 will be treated in that manner by many in the market. (b) Guidance from $pthrf management...2/
...states that a flow rate of 150bopd per 1000ft of lateral will support a declaration of commerciality for the Alkaid anomaly. Thus, 150 x 5.3 = 795bopd. (c) The Alkaid anomaly was flow tested successfully in 2019 at Alkaid-1. A 6ft (yes, only 6ft) interval was...3/ $panr #panr
...perf'd and stimulated resulting in a flow rate of 108bopd. Management has subsequently described the properties of the reservoir at the A2 location to be superior to those found at A1. (d) Founder of Great Bear and CTO of $panr, Bob Rosenthal, is on the record..4/ #panr $pthrf
...stating $panr has achieved sufficient data to surpass the threshold required to declare 100% geological Chance of Success. In late 2021, prior to the successful 21/22 winter season, Bob stated his assessment of the *commercial* CoS was "between 60 and 70%." 5/ #panr $pthrf
I note the evidence-less allegations of fraud recently levelled against the $panr BoD. For shorters who are just following the wolfpack, be aware Bob Rosenthal has been a main board advisor to BP and the #panr chairman was the Ops Director of Prudhoe Bay for ARCO. 6/ $pthrf
If you don't know where Prudhoe Bay is situated v's #panr's acreage or that it's the largest oilfield in US history then you deserve to get carted out on your trade for such ignorance, never mind objectively examining the CVs of the $panr BoD! 7/ $pthrf
(e) The short looks to be c.30-35m shares presently. Perhaps 11 days to cover on ADV? The thing is, which is so often missed by non-UK investors particularly, the UK AIM market (small caps) sees heavy involvement from market makers. Thus, what...8/ #panr $panr $pthrf
...appears to the unsophisticated eye to be 11 days to cover is more like 18+ days IMHO if you incorporate the "double counting" of market maker prints. This is exacerbated further by the US OTC quote $pthrf where the OTC line is *not* fully fungible...9/ #panr $panr
...and thus the OTC brokers rely on their UK counterparts for liquidity. So there may very well be instances of triple counting of the same stock going through the market. Shorters - you're going to have a helluva job closing out *if* the statistically probable...10/ #panr $panr
...proof of commercial flow is published next week/week after. (f) It should be clear to most market participants that $panr's register is dominated largely by UK private investors. There are many historic reasons for this but one of them is the re-shaping of...11/ $pthrf #panr
...portfolios by UK small cap fund managers. ESG has clearly had an effect. The net result is that there are hardly any UK small cap funds which now invest in E&P stocks. However, there remains a cohort of UK fund managers who *do* invest in revenue-generating E&P...12/ $panr
...companies. I personally know of at least three who are waiting for the results from Alkaid-2 before re-assessing their investment decision. Two of them have explicitly asked me to phone them on the morning of a relevant RNS. Shorters are, of course, free...13/ #panr $panr call my bluff. Ballsy call if you've read my verbose threads on $panr which focus on facts not fantasy! (g) Back to the UK private investor shareholder base. I accept that some of the shorters will imagine they have caused such a sentiment shockwave amongst these..14/ #panr
...private UK investors recently that, on a successful flow test result from A2, they'll still be able to close their short from shell-shocked retail investors anxious to return to sleep-filled nights? IMHO that would be a foolish assumption, a very... 15/ #panr $panr $pthrf
...foolish and costly assumption. $panr has attracted many O&G experts and veterans of the sector, such as David Hobbs (@Telemachus), a globally recognised expert. He has been joined by other geologists, petro-physicists, reservoir engineers, seismic specialists,...16/ #panr
...geophysicists, a range of markets, finance and legal professionals. This does *not* guarantee success but it *does* mean the risk/reward of the investment case is more deeply understood than most other listed E&Ps. To shorters - just think,...17/ $panr #panr
...if $panr's thesis is proven, in part by the A2 flow test data, this BoD whom some of your number label "fraudsters", will have found the second or third largest onshore conventional oilfield in US history. /18 #panr $pthrf
Many of the shorters have dismissed *without evidence* the integrity of the $panr BoD. They have elected to believe social media commentators who haven't even bothered to construct their own risked/unrisked models such is their superficial approach to "research". 19/ #panr
Shorters have also elected to dismiss on the record statements describing the farm in offer made to $panr this time last year...$1b staged investment for 30% of the project. The shorters' chins would collectively hit the ground with a resounding thump if they knew...20/ #panr
...the identities of the investors whose technical team approved the project having spent *months* in the data room. These shorters would do well to consider whether they wish to be short "over the weekend"?! 21/ $panr $pthrf #panr
To everyone else following $panr, I have this to say. Since the co-ordinated bear raid began, I have read nothing, *repeat nothing*, from the shorters which was "new news". They have no edge to this trade, none whatsoever. If you have elected to believe in the integrity...22/
...of the $panr BoD then, without question IMHO, the balance of probabilities is in shareholders' favour v's the shorters. GLA. /end #panr $pthrf


Slava Ukraini. Former investment banker, started in 1994. Personal more, no less. Coached by @3YearLetterman
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