America has one strategic rival right now: China. America has one major foreign policy aim: To overtake and ultimately to defeat China in a long cold war that the US is presently losing. /1

Russia is not a significant threat to the US. For America, a war with Russia in Ukraine would be a vast diversion of attention and resources in the wrong direction. The only sure winner of an American war in Ukraine would be China. /2

No American aim is served by Ukraine joining NATO. No American interest is served by a placing US troops in Ukraine. Poland, Britain, and France should step up and deal with the Russian challenge to their interests in Ukraine. It’s time for Europe to assume responsibility. /3

The claim that the US has to take the lead against Russia in order to “send a signal” to China is misconceived and absurd. The only signal an American war in Ukraine would send is that the Americans are incompetents who can’t keep their eye on the ball. /4

If you’re pro-Taiwan, you should see this clearly. If America sinks its attention and resources into an unnecessary fight with Russia right now, this could easily mean the end of Taiwan. Think carefully about this. /5

What if Poland, Britain, and France are not up to the challenge at this time? Then they should do what every nation does when it faces a serious security threat: They should arm themselves and prepare for the next round. /6

What are the options in Ukraine? European statesmen have to consider whether a neutral Ukraine, or a negotiated change in Ukraine’s border, is worse than war. If they don’t have the military capacity to deter Russia yet, they need to buy time to build that capacity. /7

If that’s the case, then there aren’t a lot of choices here. Poland, Britain and France will have to negotiate a deal with Putin to give them time to build up their deterrence posture. If that’s the reality here, everyone needs to face it and understand it. /8

None of this means that the US cannot do things to help its allies if they choose to fight. As a non-combatant, America did a great deal to support Britain in the Falklands. But Thatcher understood that the war was Britain’s to win or lose. /9

We all need to get used to a new reality: The security of Europe has to be primarily the responsibility of European nations. The era in which America could be counted on to be responsible for Europe’s security is over. /10

What about Nato? What about the EU? Notice that Germany wants no part in a European effort to balance Russia. That’s your answer right there. The security architecture of Europe will have to be built some other way. /end