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Simon Evans

@DrSimEvans

Jul 14

9 tweets
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NEW High gas prices are behind more than 90% of rising UK household energy bills 94% of the expected rise from £1,971 cap now to £3,285 in Oct is due to wholesale energy prices (& 91% since winter 2020) Green levies will fall from 5% to 3% of bills 1/ carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

The cost of buying wholesale gas & electricity will have increased from £359/yr last summer to current £1,069 & then to £2,245 in Oct This is a giant 6-fold rise – thanks to pricey gas – from Summer 2021 to Winter 2022 (Bloomberg: "Gas soars 700%") 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

At the same time, "green levies" have actually been falling, because renewables are cheaper than gas As wholesale costs soar, green levies will fall from current 5% of bills to <3% under the Winter 2022 cap *All* govt taxes & levies, inc VAT, will make up <10% 3/

Moreover, the latest UK govt auction for renewables showed they are an absolute steal vs pricey gas Building new offshore wind will cost FOUR TIMES less than running existing gas plants at today's prices 4/ carbonbrief.org/analysis-recor…

If the renewables in that recent auction had already been built, bills would be cut by £58/yr (and we'd save a load of CO2 as well) 5/ carbonbrief.org/analysis-recor…

This is the UK’s fourth biannual “contracts for difference” (CfD) auction round (AR4). As well as seeing record-low prices, with 11GW of capacity secured, it is also by far the largest.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-recor…

Analysis: Record-low price for UK offshore wind is nine times cheaper than gas - Carbon Brief

As I showed in my January analysis (updated at link in March) previous Conservative efforts to "cut the green crap" – from insulation support to renewables – have left bills billions higher than they would have been 6/ twitter.com/DrSimEvans/sta…

Simon Evans

@DrSimEvans

Mar 19View on Twitter

LATEST In Jan, I calculated UK energy bills would've been billions lower if govt hadn't "cut the green crap" carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti… Since then, gas prices have soared Observer has my latest: Impact on bills is up to £8.3bn or £150 per h'hold theguardian.com/money/2022/mar… 1/

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Finally, big thanks to @Martin @Investec for sharing energy cap projections in recent months 7/ends

PS gas drives the price of electricity as well as gas, even though only ~40% of electricity is generated using gas That's how current electricity market works This is rapidly becoming a political talking point, but I suspect any changes will take years twitter.com/UKenergywonk/s…

.@Kwasi Kwarteng taking the virtual stage at #AuroraSpringForum. Makes the case for energy market design overhaul so that consumers pay the average cost of production and feel benefit of cheaper renewables.

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PPS even if a new PM wanted to "suspend" or "scrap" green levies, it's not actually that quick or straightforward to implement, unless you're happy to commit major energy market / policy vandalism twitter.com/danielrportis/…

@Chris Skidmore and @Paul Waugh wrote yesterday that a lot of candidates for PM are promising to ditch green levies, introduce a moratorium or move them to general taxation. Is it possible? Is it bad for climate? Could it even be good? The answers, as ever, lie in the detail...🧵

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Simon Evans

@DrSimEvans

Award-winning journalist: Deputy Editor + Senior Policy Editor @CarbonBrief, covering climate & energy. DMs open | simon.evans@carbonbrief.org

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