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Bjorn Lomborg

@BjornLomborg

Aug 2

7 tweets
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Impact of new climate legislation Unnoticeable: 0.0009ยฐF to 0.028ยฐF in 2100 Why is no media describing just ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜๐—น๐—ฒ your $369 billion will achieve? Instead, we're being told: "the most significant legislation in history to tackle the climate crisis" (Biden) ๐Ÿงต

The COโ‚‚e reduction estimate comes from the Rhodium group's new reduction estimate My analysis use the average difference between their current policy and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This goes from zero in 2022 to 511Mt COโ‚‚e in 2030. rhg.com/research/inflaโ€ฆ

The $369 billion only goes to 2030 (still unclear, but not further) Low estimate assumes IRA only causes reductions for 2022-30 (underestimate) High estimate assumes IRA continues 511MtCOโ‚‚e reductions every year from 2031-2100 (big overestimate) democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/โ€ฆ

Baseline is RCP4.5, as used e.g. by UNFCCC here unfccc.int/news/cop26-updโ€ฆ Biden quote "the most significant legislation in history to tackle the climate crisis" whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/โ€ฆ UN Climate model, live.magicc.org

Why is media not demanding to see the actual climate impact of spending $369 billion The UN's own climate model shows that the impact will be impossible to detect by mid-century and still unnoticeable even in the best case by the year 2100 Shouldn't we hear that? refs in ๐Ÿงต

Impact of new climate legislation (ยฐC) Unnoticeable: 0.0005ยฐC to 0.016ยฐC in 2100 Why is no media describing just ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜๐—น๐—ฒ $369 billion will achieve? Instead, we're being told: "the most significant legislation in history to tackle the climate crisis" (Biden) ๐Ÿงต

Notice, as Roger Pielke points out, that so far the groups analyzing the legislation have all said it will reduce emissions, but not actually showed *how* this will happen... problematic twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/โ€ฆ

Roger Pielke Jr.๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

@RogerPielkeJr

Aug 02View on Twitter

The @The New York Times just outโžก๏ธ"How the New Climate Bill Would Reduce Emissions" but it fails to deliver nytimes.com/interactive/20โ€ฆ It tells us that three groups have created spreadsheet models that indicate BAU= -~25% & IRA= ~-40% What are the assumptions & mechanisms? Key passageโฌ‡๏ธ

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Bjorn Lomborg

@BjornLomborg

Author of 'False Alarm', 'Cool It' and 'Skeptical Environmentalist', president Copenhagen Consensus think tank: smart solutions through economic prioritization

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