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Sofia Horta e Costa
@SofiaHCBBG
Sep 23, 2022
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All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
Timing Taiwan. China says it has the patience to someday bring Taiwan under its control and is “full of confidence” it will happen. Foreign Minister Wang Yi compares Taiwan's drive for independence to a charging rhino that must be stopped. 2/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-21/china-says-has-the-patience-needed-to-bring-taiwan-into-its-fold
…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China Says It Has Patience Needed to Bring Taiwan Under Control
Wall Street gets grilled. Citi CEO Jane Fraser was forced to say whether her bank would pull business from China if its military invaded Taiwan. “It’s highly likely that we would have a materially reduced presence if any at all,” she answers. 3/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-21/wall-street-ceos-grilled-on-china-russia-ties-by-us-lawmakers
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Wall Street CEOs Grilled on China, Russia Ties by US Lawmakers
Mortgage boycotts. Homebuyers are coordinating online to suspend payments on 340+ projects, up from about 318 in early July. “Government support is not strong enough to reverse the lost confidence,” according to one economist. 4/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-20/china-mortgage-boycotts-grow-as-home-buyers-regroup-online
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China Mortgage Boycotts Grow as Home Buyers Regroup Online
Tightening belts. Pressure on local government coffers is intensifying, with all 31 provincial regions in China - except Shanghai - logging a deficit in the first 7 months of the year. Constraints on spending will impede stimulus efforts. 5/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-18/cost-of-covid-zero-is-straining-municipal-finances-across-china
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Cost of Covid Zero Is Straining Municipal Finances Across China
Yuan defense. A strong dollar is throwing global currency markets into chaos, and China is not immune. Beijing continues to push back against yuan weakness but is unlikely to intervene like Japan. 6/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-22/china-sets-longest-run-of-yuan-fixes-with-strong-bias-on-record
…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China Sets Longest Run of Yuan Fixes With Strong Bias on Record
Estimates slashed. Economists are becoming less optimistic about China’s growth outlook for next year, with no end in sight for Covid Zero and the property-market crisis. Nomura predicts 4.3% GDP growth for 2023, down from 5.1% previously. 7/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-23/china-s-2023-growth-outlook-at-risk-under-uncertain-covid-policy
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China’s 2023 Growth Outlook at Risk Under Uncertain Covid Policy
Higher rates. The Fed hikes and Hong Kong follows as expected due to its currency peg. The city's banks bump up their lending rates for the first time since 2018 - bad news for homeowners, almost all of whom have flexible mortgage loans. 8/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-22/hsbc-raises-hong-kong-prime-rate-for-first-time-since-2018
…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
HSBC Raises Hong Kong Prime Rate for First Time Since 2018
Corruption cleanse. A Chinese court sent a former justice minister to jail for life as part of Xi's push to reduce graft. The nationwide campaign has affected more than 170,000 officials and police officers since it began in July 2020. 9/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-22/xi-s-graft-crackdown-sends-ex-justice-minister-to-jail-for-life
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Xi’s Graft Crackdown Sends Ex-Justice Minister to Jail for Life
Hong Kong ends quarantine. The city will scrap its most stringent border controls from 6am Monday, Sept 26, much earlier than expected. This ends 2.5 years of isolation from the rest of the world. The border with mainland China is effectively shut. 10/10
https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2022-09-23/hong-kong-to-end-mandatory-hotel-quarantine-from-next-week
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hong Kong to End Mandatory Hotel Quarantine From Next Week
Sofia Horta e Costa
@SofiaHCBBG
China stocks, rates, fx, credit and macro for @business in Hong Kong. Weekly threads pinned. Alum of @LSEnews @warwickuni. Views / retweets mine. Lisboeta 🇵🇹
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