All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
Timing Taiwan. China says it has the patience to someday bring Taiwan under its control and is “full of confidence” it will happen. Foreign Minister Wang Yi compares Taiwan's drive for independence to a charging rhino that must be stopped. 2/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Wall Street gets grilled. Citi CEO Jane Fraser was forced to say whether her bank would pull business from China if its military invaded Taiwan. “It’s highly likely that we would have a materially reduced presence if any at all,” she answers. 3/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Mortgage boycotts. Homebuyers are coordinating online to suspend payments on 340+ projects, up from about 318 in early July. “Government support is not strong enough to reverse the lost confidence,” according to one economist. 4/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tightening belts. Pressure on local government coffers is intensifying, with all 31 provincial regions in China - except Shanghai - logging a deficit in the first 7 months of the year. Constraints on spending will impede stimulus efforts. 5/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Yuan defense. A strong dollar is throwing global currency markets into chaos, and China is not immune. Beijing continues to push back against yuan weakness but is unlikely to intervene like Japan. 6/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Estimates slashed. Economists are becoming less optimistic about China’s growth outlook for next year, with no end in sight for Covid Zero and the property-market crisis. Nomura predicts 4.3% GDP growth for 2023, down from 5.1% previously. 7/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Higher rates. The Fed hikes and Hong Kong follows as expected due to its currency peg. The city's banks bump up their lending rates for the first time since 2018 - bad news for homeowners, almost all of whom have flexible mortgage loans. 8/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Corruption cleanse. A Chinese court sent a former justice minister to jail for life as part of Xi's push to reduce graft. The nationwide campaign has affected more than 170,000 officials and police officers since it began in July 2020. 9/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hong Kong ends quarantine. The city will scrap its most stringent border controls from 6am Monday, Sept 26, much earlier than expected. This ends 2.5 years of isolation from the rest of the world. The border with mainland China is effectively shut. 10/10 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Sofia Horta e Costa
@SofiaHCBBG
China stocks, rates, fx, credit and macro for @business in Hong Kong. Weekly threads pinned. Alum of @LSEnews @warwickuni. Views / retweets mine. Lisboeta 🇵🇹