The 17% rally from the June low to the August high failed right on cue, after reaching technically overbought levels and retracing half of the decline. /2
The chart above shows what happens after the first breadth peak following a major decline. During new bull markets, such technically overbought conditions are often ignored (a sign of strength). /3
But during bear markets, they tend to be the kiss of death, and a sign that the bear market is ready to resume. This looks more like a bear market rally than a bull market to me. /4
If the stock market goes down another 10% to 3500, that would produce a modest new low for this cycle (the current low is 3666). /5
Technically, such a new low could spur all kinds of momentum and breadth divergences, given how oversold things got at the June low. /END
Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
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