Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran
Sep 23, 2022
9 tweets
1/9
Ok, decided to punt about 55% of my cash in my stock account back into some defensive long plays here, and another 10% in 3x NDX and SPY in case of a bounce.
Still got my twaps active, but we'll either turn around in this range or go a lot lower, so ready to stop out.
2/9
Mostly not liking growth yet, so everything was defensive things, high dividends, some investment grade and high yield bonds, some consumer durables, telecoms and banks.
Did pick up a bit of Euro, Yen and Pound for fun, but negligible amounts.
3/9
The kind of stocks I've picked up are ones I think I can probably hold for 30+ years in my retirement accounts, so even if we see a lower push it'll have still been a discount and I'll make back on the dividends.
4/9
My hunch is that as long as the weekend doesn't have any major geopolitical issues then on Monday we'll likely get a bit of a bounce before any further leg down and I can exit out of the triples on the bounce.
5/9
This should bring us to a less volatile position until earnings revisions hit and we start to get into colder weather, that will be the time to decide if I need to pivot or not.
But usually an earnings revision would mark the trough of the cycle.
6/9
I think we can still drop down a bit, but we're getting close to the bottom, and the 2-year yield hitting nearly 5% has to start to look like a turning point, because if it doesn't, then we're mega fucked anyway and so a few points more of performance won't matter.
7/9
Actually not sure what this means for the crypto market, especially with new legal concerns from the CFTC.
ETH has held up way better than I would have expected, not sure why flows are so low and unresponsive, but it could catch up, or could signal we're more risk on.
8/9
Someone recently pointed out to me that major indexes have a lot of automated flow that crypto doesn't have to the same scale, so it holding up may actually be a sign of investors thinking we're near bottom and ready to put on risk.
9/9
None of this is financial advice, I just try and openly share my thoughts and my trading is entirely based on my risk model and goals which are likely different than yours.
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
@adamscochran
Partner@CEHV, Adj. Professor Info Sci/Biz Analysis, Contributing to @iearnfinance, @amphoraprotocol, https://t.co/CD9jz6mx89, #LeXpunK, Prev: Growth@DuckDuckGo
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