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Bob Elliott

Bob Elliott

Nov 23, 2022
8 tweets

I don't know a thing about NZ. But if I'd put these charts on a intro macro test and asked students what the central bank should do in response, the answer would be a lot more tightening. A little case study thread. Headline inflation running 1.5% to 2% m/m.

Core inflation rate rising. At >6% y/y.
Unemployment rate at secular lows:
Job vacancies at highs:
Wages rising rapidly. Looks like y/y on hourly wages is 37.93/33.86 - 1 = 12%??
Capacity utilization (choppy) near highs:
Economy running at capacity when looked at across indicators. Headline inflation going at 1.5-2% m/m. Core above 6%. And the short rate is... 4.25%. Seems like there is a lot more work to be done here.
q/q not m/m. could use an edit button.
Bob Elliott

Bob Elliott

CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | all comments are personal views and not investment advice
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