BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
after BQ.1** Sars-Cov2 has taken off in mid-July
CAMPINAS/São Paulo going back to Emergency Hospitals ["Hospitais de Campanha"]
like in early pandemic times in 2020
as Public ICU bedsoverwhelmed
100% occupied
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
And the country lost again [and again]
a window of opportunity to start
a Public Health management
as Ministry of Health data has already showed BQ.1** in 10 states on Nov 18th
Rio de Janeiro
São Paulo
Amazonas ...
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold CAMPINAS/São Paulo
WITHincreased positivity 28%
WITHOUT masksmandate back
City Covid Committee did not follow Science advice
and did not approve #BringBackMasks mandate
unlike Covid Committee of local University
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
Facing vaccine-escaping variants
masks mandate back on Nov 16th
at University of Campinas UNICAMP
afterpositivity 17% to 34%/1wk
Covid Committee approved 2 mandates
masks in closed spaces [PFF2/surgical]
2 boosters
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold an increasednumber of cases
+120% throughout the country in October [22 states]
+ 740% Maranhão +575% Sergipe +488% Rondônia
+ 330% Rio de Janeiro +229% Paraíba
[Ministry of Health - November 11th]
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold cases +2.350% Piauí +294% Roraima
+145% E. Santo +119% Amapá
deaths +800% Bahia +700% Goiás
+449% São Paulo +200% E. Santo
[Oct 18th]
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
After a jump to 17% positivity last Oct
Nov 22nd: 16 statesdeaths
daily cases Rio de Janeiro 12.394 Minas Gerais 4.389
Nov 23rd: 18 statesdeaths
daily cases Rio de Janeiro 6.299 MG 3.960
São Paulo 2.821
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SRAG]/COVID
highest activity cases
100% São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Paraíba Pernambuco Alagoas
highest activity deaths
100% São Paulo 98% Rio de Janeiro
[FIOCRUZ/Nov19th]
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
Facing vaccine-escaping variants
masks mandate back on Nov 17th
at Escola Paulista de Medicina/UNIFESP
Covid Committee approved 2 mandates
masks in closed spaces
2 boosters
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold CAMPINAS/SP watching the game with the VIRUS
24 hrs after announcing the 1st retour to
Covid Emergency Hospitals
with ICU beds 100% occupied
City Hall organizes a crowd ...to watch Football!!!
without masks, of course
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
BQ.1 and BQ.1.* the reasoncases & deaths
In the last days
an explosion of new cases & deaths
throughout the country starting a new challenge
to the Private and Public Health Care [SUS]
with simultaneouslyBQ.1*...
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
After the first cases in São Paulo/Oct 17th
Amazonas/Oct 20th and Rio de Janeiro/Nov 5th
BQ.1 + BQ.1.* increasedfrom 5,4% to 64,8%
[Fiocruz Genomic Network]
with +274% positive tests
in labs and pharmacies [October]
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
The Brazilian squad with "flu-like ilness"
and
The World CUP is a great candidate to be
THE superspreader event of the year!!!
Blangladesh!...
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
After first cases
São Paulo Amazonas Rio de Janeiro
BQ.1 + BQ.1.* increased5,4% to 64,8% [FIOCRUZ]
increasednumber of cases
+120% throughout the country +740% Maranhão
+575% Sergipe +488% Rondônia +330% Rio d Janeiro
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
growth of cases at all ages!!!
November 2022
deaths
22nd 16 states 23rd 18 states 29th 16 states
daily cases
22nd Rio de Janeiro 12.394 Minas Gerais 4.389
23rd RJ 6.299 MG 3.960
29th RJ 12.006 MG 5.571
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold
FIOCRUZ/Nov 29th
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SRAG]
COVID 95% of fatal cases
highest activity cases
100% Brasília São Paulo Rio de Janeiro
highest activity deaths
Paraíba 95% Pernambuco 85%
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold cases and deaths
deaths
Nov 29th 16 states
Dec 2nd 17 states
daily cases
Nov 29th RJ 12.006 MG 5.571 RS 5.085
Dec 2nd MG 5.700 RJ 5.278 SP 4.919
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold cases and deaths
deaths
Dec 3rd 18 states
daily cases
Dec 3rd SP 5.126 Santa Catarina 4.308
Positivity
23% - Nov 5th
32% - Nov 12th
41% - Nov 19th
33% - Nov 26th
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold cases and deaths
RiO de JANEiRO
November 14% new cases/14 days
31-32% positivity RATs
33-40% positivity PCR
December
28 - 98% RATs+
28 - 86% PCR+
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold São PAULO Dec 2nd 46% positivity
last week+35% new cases
+7% hospitalizations
+77% Campinas +133% HC/UNICAMP
+250% PMESP +475% Penitentiary Hospitals
+15% ICUhosp
+200% HC/Ribeirão Preto +350% HC/SP
+600% SJC
BRASIL: starting a new collapse foretold BA.5.* lineagesfade down to 21%
BQ.*grew strongly in Nov to dominance 73%
led by BQ.1.1 "Cerberus" at 55%
Daily cases are now over 6X higher at 130/1M
Daily deaths are now over 3X higher at 4/1M
tks @Mike Honey
South America & BRASIL
epidemic activity
Argentina R=1.49
Bolivia R=1.41
Peru R=1.30
Uruguay R=1.20
Brazil R=1.10
12 statesincreasing daily deaths
tks @Antoine FLAHAULT
BRASIL2022
babies < 1 year old
26 hospitalizations/1st week October
193 hospitalizations/1st week November
babies < 1 to 5 years old
61 hospitalizations/1st week October
134 hospitalizations/1st week November
BRASIL2022
babies < 2 years old
positivity from 3% in Oct. to 16% in Nov.
+21% increased hospitalization in November
only 19% of them with risk factors and yet
children 6 months to 5 years of age may take
vaccine only if they have comorbidities
BRASIL2022
5.9 million children 3 - 4 y/o
14% vacc1 d 4% vacc2 d
Ministry of Health misinformed 40% 2dcoverage
highest nos. of vaccines applied to
target population: Paraná Ceará Pernambuco
lowest nos. of vaccines applied
Maranhão Mato Grosso
BRASIL increasedcases hospitalizationsand deaths throughout the country!!!
ABRAFARMA RATs [rapid tests]
September 22: 5.550+results
October 22: 7.986 +
November 22: 87.968 +
BR positivity35% or even more
Acre: 54% Sergipe: 49% Bahia: 48%
BRASIL increasedcases hospitalizationsand deaths throughout the country!!!
RATs: performance w/dominant Omicron variants
FALSE negative
for symptomatic people 22%
for asymptomatic people 61%
RATs numbers probably reflect only the tip of the iceberg
BRASIL increasedcases hospitalizationsand deaths throughout the country!!!
cases
Mato Grosso: +700%
Maranhão: +564%
Goiás: +235%
Rondônia & Rio Grande Sul: +168%
deaths
Mato Grosso: +1.500%
Rio Grande Norte: +1.200%
Alagoas: +367%
Espírito Santo: +360%
BRASIL increasedcases hospitalizationsand deaths throughout the country!
BRASíLiA:collapse
Dec/22 transmission rate>1,5
1st +1.496 new cases 2nd +2.150 new cases
14th+2.607 16th +1.685
Highest incidence in childhood<2 y/o
Occup ICU 93% general 68% COVID
BRASIL FIOCRUZ reports
caseshosp & deaths throughout the country
Nov 19th
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SRAG]/COVID
highest activity cases
100% São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Paraíba Pernambuco
highest activity deaths
100% São Paulo 98% Rio Janeiro
BRASIL FIOCRUZ reports
caseshosp & deaths throughout the country
Nov 29th
[SRAG]/COVID 95% of fatal cases
highest activity cases
100% Brasília São Paulo Rio de Janeiro
highest activity deaths
Paraíba 95% Pernambuco 85%
BRASIL FIOCRUZ reports
caseshosp & deaths since November
Dec 12th
[SRAG] COVID 97% fatal cases
highest activity cases
100% Brasília São Paulo Bahia Minas Gerais Ceará
RN PE AL
highest activity deaths
Rio Grande Sul Minas Gerais São Paulo
BRASIL increasedcases hospitalizationsand deaths throughout the country!!!
Genomic surveillance
Dec 22
FIOCRUZ Gerstung-Lab
BQ.1.1 41,4% 55,0%
BQ.1.* 10,3% 40,4%
XBB 0,1%
XBB.1 0,9%
ANVISA Masks and VaccinesMinistry of Health
Brasil will have Pfizer bivalent vaccines
in December
[no data concerning which bivalent vaccines
BA.1 or BA.4/BA.5]
FiOCRUZ Genomic Dashboard /Nov 21st
0% BA.1 or BA.2
29% BA.4 + BA.5