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Florian Kronawitter

Florian Kronawitter

Nov 24, 2022
7 tweets

1- #ConnectingTheDots Commodities/Oil & Gas We are currently in the ~4th inning of an economic slowdown

2- Many lead indicators point to significant contraction ahead h/t @Kantro
3- The world economy's last bastion, the US Consumer, shows signs of weakness This is likely driven by lower income groups who used up their savings
4- In China, Covid will suffocate economic activity for most of the winter We are at the beginning of a big wave that likely peaks in 4-6 weeks Chinese mobility very likely declines from here
5- Meanwhile, the market perceives US monetary policy to have softened This lead to a sell off in the US Dollar and US Treasuries that seems to near its end J Powell speaks on the 30th November, what do you think he'll say?…
6- Oil & Gas and commodities may be secular winners over the next 5-10 years, but they remain highly cyclical industries Recently, they diverged significantly from their underlying cyclical trends
7- $XLE $XME $SXPP are well-owned with many "believers". This creates downside risk as economic realities set in Short term, I see much downside for these sectors End.
Florian Kronawitter

Florian Kronawitter

Founder @SophiaKnowledge | Previously Merrill Lynch, Paulson, White Square (Founder) | All views my own, not investment advice
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