Albert Pinto@70sBachchan
May 29, 2020
26 tweets
3 informed pieces on the India-China skirmish on disputed Himalayan border
economist.com/asia/2020/05/2
(2) P Stobdan, former Indian ambassador: "India too has gone for military build-up, expansion of logistic capabilities... as the Army moved battle tanks to remote points & created a mountain strike corps, a Chinese response was expected" tribuneindia.com/news/comment/l
(3) @M. Taylor Fravel who has tracked China's defense policy @MIT SSP: "paradoxically, less vocal public statements allow China to use troop movements & posture to signal its opposition to Indian activities on the LAC while leaving flexibility for a resolution" thehindu.com/news/national/
(4) PLOT TWIST is... Locusts. Controlling them requires pesticides, workers, jeeps & planes. Delhi, Beijing & Islamabad are racing to create joint pesticide stockpiles & operations before mega-attack in Jul/Aug.
2020, Pax Locusta for Asia's nuclear powers?
chinadialogue.net/article/show/s
Monsoon in Subcontinent begins in days. It was the floods in E Africa that created habitats for locust swarms. A pivotal next few weeks of pesticide spraying by Delhi, Beijing & Islamabad. Expect this escalation: 1000s of trucks, planes & military vehicles downtoearth.org.in/news/environme
Pakistan declared state of emergency in Feb as locusts ate orchards, crops & cotton fields. It has received material assistance from UK, US, China, Turkey. "Chinese technicians will also train Pakistani workers in the use of spray machinery" -Amb. Yao Jing
reliefweb.int/sites/reliefwe
Is the India-China Himalayan faceoff related to India's 2019 constitutional amendment and bifurcation of Kashmir? Ladakh turned into a Union Territory directly controlled by Delhi and China registered opposition stoutly back then. x.com/aadilbrar/stat
Aadil Brar@aadilbrar
Jun 05 20
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Since the abrogation of Article 370 is again making news, resharing what I wrote for The Wire India on 28 May 2020.
thewire.in/history/how-zh
Mini-thread on that extraordinarily risky decision last August. x.com/70sBachchan/st
Albert Pinto@70sBachchan
Aug 05 19
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Extraordinary events in #Kashmir. Assertion of undemocratic power by Modi+Shah v risky. Rests on 3 assumptions. Hindu settlement in Valley will attract real estate invstmt; armed insurgents can be quelled; political opponents can be bought off. Quagmire? Tinderbox? Time will tell
Ashley Tellis reckons unilateral 2019 Kashmir-Ladakh bifurcation & infra modernization "reinforced the Chinese determination to wrest control of disputed territories that were long desired but were now judged to be imperiled by India’s domestic decisions" carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/04/hus
Shocking. Bloodiest day for India-China conflict since '62. Both suffer casualties at 15,000 ft in Galwan valley of Ladakh. Was it sticks, stones, landslides, bullets? Will they go back to negotiations? Does domestic lid blow off for Modi? ht @Aadil Brar x.com/rahulkanwal/st
Rahul Kanwal@rahulkanwal
Jun 16 20
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Indian Army confirms 20 deaths. Toll could go up further.
"Fact is China is interested in becoming a regional hegemon & the dominant power in Asia. Its interested in changing the status quo in SChina sea...& regarding its border w India" Mearsheimer in full I-told-you-so mode @Patrick Porter youtube.com/watch?v=yC-2QV
x.com/NTag2389/statu
Niharika Tagotra@NTag2389
Jun 20 20
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Watching Prof JJ Mearsheimer on @IndiaToday . States simply "I don't believe in the concept of trust" in International Relations.
Things get heated when
"Asian Century" meets
"America has put 4 contenders — Imperial Germany & Japan, Nazis & Soviets — on the scrapheap of History" meets
"umm don't 2 countries with 3 billion ppl have a common interest in global warming?"
Fun debate! youtube.com/watch?v=yC-2QV
Fascinating look at #IndiaChinaFaceOff from a Chinese perspective by @Stimson Center's Yun Sun. Just a classic one side's defensive moves looks like offense to the other.
warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas
India-China standoff is volatile. Its all getting eerily like 1962.
Shots fired; Both move troops & tanks to control commanding heights before winter. Foreign Ministers Jaishankar & Wang meet in Moscow to pull back from the brink.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/lac-stan
x.com/HuXijin_GT/sta
Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT
Sep 09 20
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The PLA on Wed released a video of Tibet military command’s live-fire drill on the plateau. PLA also conducted a drill of airborne troops. Yes, these are all aimed at the situation on China-India border. The Indian army will either stop provoking or be prepared to be defeated.
Right, thats sorted then. theprint.in/diplomacy/keep x.com/kartikeya_1975
Kartikeya Sharma@kartikeya_1975
Sep 11 20
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2. The two Foreign Ministers agreed that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.
Of the more than 1,000 sq km in Ladakh along the LAC now under Chinese control...Depsang alone is about 900...
That would make it the largest chunk of Indian territory denied to Indian soldiers in a single swoop after the 1962 Sino-India war @Sushant Singh
thewire.in/diplomacy/deps
Ashley Tellis on India-China-US relns. Points out that the Chinese are more Indian nationalist than India! Their fait accompli gamble was that Ind prefers strategic autonomy over taking orders from DC. India's intelligence failure means mil advntg negated
youtube.com/watch?v=aYCE9F
19/ Indian & Chinese soldiers deployed to the brutal icy Himalayan wastelands aren't too far from Borges comment "Like 2 bald men fighting over a comb" on the Falklands war. Sadly, stupidly, more will die of frostbite at -40C than in any actual combat. x.com/BIC_Blr/status
Bangalore International Centre@bicblr
Jan 12 21
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50-60,000 Indian soldiers are spending the winter in the eastern border of Ladakh, defending Indian territory from Chinese encroachment.
@Sushant Singh tells us about the challenges faced by soldiers, 8 months into the India-China conflict.
Tune in! bangaloreinternationalcentre.org/event/84-a-har
20/ Smidge more complex, Luttwak. Modi's '19 Kashmir-Ladakh division "reinforced Chinese determination to wrest control of disputed territories that were long desired but were now judged to be imperiled by India’s domestic decisions"carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/04/hus x.com/ELuttwak/statu
Edward N Luttwak@ELuttwak
Jan 22 21
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Instead of joining the AUS ,Japan, US+ alliance, India preferred "engagement" with China ("two ancient civilizations" etc"). After 18 Modi-Xi meetings & 5 Modi China visits, the result: Beijing's wants to humiliate India with land grabs in Ladakh & Arunachal, to gain hegemony
21/ India & China have an interest in alliance? China’s foreign minister to meet India’s FM & national security advisor “to discuss the way forward in resolving the two year old military stand-off”.
@Policy Tensor ending territorial disputes, is step 1. thehindu.com/news/internati
22/ Thread on sino-indian balance of power x.com/policytensor/s
Policy Tensor@policytensor
Dec 02 22
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Chinese aggression against India was suppressed in 1962 as well. The power gap was amplified by holding the high ground. Now they’ve build military infrastructure that gives them a decisive advantage on both fronts. This is way bigger than South China Sea. foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/01/chi
23/ 2022 has one last sting in the tail. A mortal kombat fight between two nuclear armed asian giants in the Himalayas where modern weapons freeze.
"Over 200 PLA troops came with spiked clubs, taser guns, Indian soldiers hit back"
theprint.in/defence/arunac
x.com/shashj/status/
Shashank Joshi@shashj
Dec 12 22
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If confirmed, this would be the largest Sino-Indian clash since Galwan in 2020. “Over 200 Chinese troops armed with spiked clubs…monkey fists & taser guns clashed with Indian soldiers in the Yangtse area of Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector last Friday”. Injuries on both sides.
24/ Why nail studded clubs? China and India signed an actual treaty in 1996 to not use weapons in high Himalayan borders given risk of weapons freezing.
“Neither side shall open fire...or hunt with guns and explosives within two kilometres from the LAC”
peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemak
25/ Indo-china border clashes occur on remote icy peaks with no reporters around. Why & when they are made public are good questions.
This clash happend on 9th November, but was made public later. Modi's electoral fortunes could dictate 'when' question
x.com/shashj/status/
x.com/shashj/status/Shashank Joshi@shashj
Dec 14 22
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Indian army officers tell the Telegraph that face-offs with the PLA are happening 2-3 times a month in Arunachal Pradesh. "Sometimes we have to use stones and rods to push them back...We get directions from the top not to discuss these incidents"
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/
26/ Important context from Saran on "why now" question of clash:
"China was conveying its anger over the recent India-US joint military exercises in the hill-state of Uttarakhand, barely 100 kms from the border"
Has it been reported in US press?
27/ Saran suggests India entering a period of opportunity & vulnerability as China checks its G20 lead ambitions. Instead of responding reactively to Chinese incursions, Indian military should proactively make incursions beyond LAC for bargaining chips. x.com/SushantSin/sta
Albert Pinto
@70sBachchan
Defiant, Dispirited, Despondent. Without illusions but not disillusioned. Focus on Climate, Inequality, Development. Twitter threads turn into Polycrisis essays
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