Ok folks, sharing some thoughts on the current state of Pakistan.
Strictly my opinions. Feel free to disagree!
Been a while since I did a thread, lets see how this one goes ..
First and foremost, I would like to start with an undisputable fact:
This is the longest that the Pakistan Army has NOT directly ruled Pakistan.
Yup, you may read the above statement again and take some time to do some mental mathematics if you so desire!
Now, why might that be, one might ask.
Well, it is NOT because they have decided to stay in their constitutionally mandated role instead of meddling in politics (and business as well, but that topic is 'out of course' for the time being).
Instead, I would blame the Kerry-Lugar Bill of 2009(?) that forbade any aid to Pakistan in case of a military coup!
Heck that was the reason why the first elected govt of Pakistan could complete its full term under a single head of govt!
So, the first #Paki parliament to complete its full terms is here. Finally!
Heartfelt gratitude to Messrs Kerry & Lugar for that!
But then, the key word in the tweet regarding no direct military rule is the word 'DIRECT'!
The Brown Panted Ones may have gone in the background, but they never let go of their political power, so to say!
In fact, they seem to have developed a taste for backseat driving!
There can be no greater testimony to the fact that Brown Panted Ones are the real rulers of Bhikharistan, than the various political entities still vying for the 'attentions' of the Army in order to further their own political fortunes as Pakistan heads out to the next election
I will come to that in a while. But first let me get on with the current situation out there in Bhikharistan. It goes something like this:-
On the verge of default
Riots and murders for as little as a bag of flour
Political paralysis (as always)
Increasing centrifugal forces
It isn't the first time they have faced these challenges.
But it does seem a bit 'different' this time, no?
Perhaps because the world is no longer just throwing money at them?
Heck, even the almighty Amreeka is ignoring them!
PS: Pl don't bring up the Bhikharistanis dancing in ecstasy when the USA pulled out of Afghanistan not so long ago, crowing that they have defeated 'Yet Another Superpower'!
PPS: Pl also ignore the kicks on the Packie backsides being delivered daily by the same Afghanistan!
Basically, their economic model of Begging, Borrowing (and printing FICNs) to sustain their economy is under a LOT of stress because neither are they able to beg (to their heart's content) or even borrow due to the chickens finally coming home to roost!
All those pledges for flood relief fund that the smug Bhikharistanis 'extracted' just a few weeks ago, turned out to be vague promises of loans that would .. gasp .. need to be repaid!!
Understandably, there are food riots on their streets!
Will Pakistan ultimately default on its loan repayments this summer?
Basically, they've been in hand-to-mouth situation since a really really long time and have somehow at the last moment someone throws some crumbs their way and they are able to live to beg another day!
In fact that should be the new motto of Bhikharistan: Live to Beg Another Day!
Of course, that penury and poverty doesn't apply to their feudal elites or their Brown Panted Ones who continue on the path to 'prosperity' as is adequately indicated by their ever growing bellies!
And as far as the mango people go, well, they can eat cake, no?
Heck, the feudal lords will at times personally deliver those cakes!
So what comes next?
This is what I will delve upon further on in the thread.
The one thing that I am waiting for (and Insha'llah, it would happen soon) is their forex reserves going below the $4Bn mark.
THAT would be a good psychological blow, IMO, since it's been a while since their forex reserves went to the 'Three Point Something' mark!
But Will they default?
Seems increasingly likely too.
But then there is always a billion or two that benefactors can throw at them!
So back now..
Any additional money thrown their way will only result in kicking of the can a bit further down the road before the inevitable happens.
Now I'm no economist to hazard a guess as to how the situation might pan out in case they do default, but then I can make a guess!
Sri Lanka scenario of some months ago gives a template of what might happen. Massive protests .. toppling of govt .. occupation of mansions of the elites .. you name it!
But Bhikharistan is a bit different.
And no, I'm NOT talking about nukes!
Instead, what I am talking about is a rabid, fanatical population armed with perhaps the largest inventory of weapons with civilian citizens after America.
Once they become a mob, things would be really interesting to watch!
But that might still be some time away, especially if the Brown Panted rulers can somehow 'divert' their attention away from empty plates within and an enemy outside.
You get my drift, right?
It may not be too long before they accuse India of stirring up troubles on their borders.
But then, if they indeed do so, what happens next?
Will they muster the courage to 'teach India a lesson'?
Especially with the experience of Balakot & loss of an F-16?
And of trembling legs?
Interestingly, the average Pakistani citizen is more and more apprehensive of and at some level, even enamoured with the rapid growth that India has achieved. They do realise that India has pulled so far away that there is no way Pakistan can ever hope to catch up anymore.
Hence, heightened tensions on the Durand Line might be one way to rally their starving population!
But then, knowing the absurdities they are known for, they might STILL choose to poke India yet again!
This quote from a senior military officer sums it up!
#Quote Each army prepares 4 the expected & the unexpected. After Kargil, it seems that Indian Army will also need to prepare for the absurd!
Yet, we see peace overtures (only to be quickly made contingent upon handing over Kashmir to them!) from Bhikharistan.
What I make of it is pure and simple signalling to benefactors that 'Look, we are seeking peace. Now give us alms!'
Kashmir is something they just can't give up.
Kashmir has been the reason for their existence.
Kashmir will be the reason for their downfall!
They've been having wet dreams ever since their very birth about 'freeing' Kashmir.
And to think they will move on now, is pure stupidity!
This is a song from Pakistani film Bedari of 1957.
They copied the song from 'Jagriti' of 1954 & added the RR about Kashmir!
And u think they will give up just because they're a few billion dollars short today?
There can never be peace till the time Pakistan exists!
They are fast approaching a critical mass of sorts.
Thereafter, gravity takes over and things become irreversible, even for the Brown Panted ones to take care of.
Whenever the Pakistan Army have found themselves in such a situation, they have had no choice but to lash out.
They have two options when it comes to lashing out - Either outside their borders, or inside.
Let me explain ..
Firstly, their default option for lashing out is of course, outside their borders.
But that only happened once - in 1971. Yet that too was because they had lashed out within on their own Bengali population and things spiralled out of control!
Remember, for all the fake bravado, the survival instinct of the Brown Panted Ones is really strong.
That's why, when in trouble they mostly lash out on their own people.
After 1965, there was an internal coup and Ayub Khan was thrown out.
Thereafter, once the rout of 1971 was reasonably distant, they hanged the Prime Minister and ushered in yet another dictatorship!
Same happened after 1999 humiliation as well, when Musharraf 'gifted' himself to Pakistan.
Get my drift?
I fully expect another internal crackdown soon, or perhaps another military man in power, IF they are unable to create a situation on their borders.
But then, as I said in the beginning of this thread, that's just my opinion!
That is not to say that the Pakistan Army itself isn't under any stress.
This is the first time perhaps that so many of their subjects (or as they are called in normal countries, citizens) are openly abusing them!
Their own rank and file too aren't blameless either
The intoxication which comes with unquestioned power, has really made them believe themselves to be a 'class apart' from the hoi-polloi!
Heck, even their 'better' halves are in on the game.
Do go thru this thread below!
Meanwhile in Pakistan - This 'Colonel ki Biwi' is behaving like nothing less than a General herself!
The sense of entitlement and arrogance of power is simply mind boggling!
Pakistan Army is truly a curse on Pakistan.
Of course, it is only fair to assume that the rank and file of the Pakistan Army too wouldn't stay untouched with all that is happening in their country.
A 'Daadhi-Wala' Vs 'Daaru-Wala' clash within the Brown Panted Ones in the near future cannot be ruled out either, especially if things go farther south.
Now that would be fun, right?
In such a scenario, would they swallow their pride and sue for genuine peace?
Or would they go Kamikaze with an aim to take down as many 'Kafirs' with them as they can?
In case they do go Kamikaze, would they only concentrate on Kafirs in India?
Esp since their missiles can reach Israel?
Heck, the same missiles can even reach China!
Food for thought, no?
Basically, they are well on their way to becoming the World's problem instead of merely being India's problem.
The world too is beginning to realise this.
Hence the reluctance to dole out free monies any more.
Of course the Ukraine War too has diverted their attention!
For the time being, it suits everyone to keep Bhikharistan on liquid oxygen - on the verge of default being their default setting - so that they are kept busy within!
Yes, there can be a future scenario wherein India sees an influx of refugees from a failed/failing Pakistan.
What might we do then, right?
Especially with the loonie brigade within, whose hearts bleed for their Pakistani 'brethren', even at the cost of national security!
I touched upon this thought some time back.
And given the way that the Govt of Pakistan is (NOT) dealing with it, there is a very good chance of this actually happening.
What happens there in case it does happen?
Well, one thing that surely comes to mind is a full blown refugee crisis on our borders.
The option I found to be the most suitable then was to establish refugee camps within Pakistani territory.
I still stand by this.
There is absolutely no way we can let in the hordes of radicalized loonies into our borders.
But keep them away!
Do we create refugee camps ACROSS their borders?
Food for thought, no?
I'll not delve much on that for the time being, though.
What I am looking at, is the fact that a weak China and a Pakistan virtually on the brink of default with a Saudi Arabia / UAE UNABLE to park free ..
Of course, that contingency may still be a long way out, if at all.
But remember, this is a civilizational conflict.
It will not end with the failure of Pakistan.
It will only end with the failure of the IDEA of Pakistan.
Do read the above statements once again, if you must.
It is THIS that we need to keep in mind as we move ahead to our rightful place in the comity of Nations.
The world at large is headed for days of geopolitical uncertainty over the next decade or so. We too are unlikely to remain unaffected.
That said, we need to be well prepared to achieve what we wish to/need to.
For that, we need to know the desired end-state in our neighbourhood.
Might it be multiple Pakistans instead of one?
Or successors of current Pakistani State, but friendlier?
Or even an Afg on our borders.
Remember, during the first Taliban regime in Kabul in the 1990s, India didn't have a diplomatic mission. This time, however, not only does the Indian diplomatic mission in Kabul continues to function, but also actively engage the Taliban.
What might be the reason?
As I wind up this thread, let me come back to Bhikharistan. In the immediate future, I don't see any improvement in their situation because of the very fact that they might be looking at it as a problem for the next Govt, given the elections that are fast approaching!
But I wouldn't be very surprised either if they decide to 'make a concession' and 'permit' India to sell them essential food items in the near future!
Packie PM's recent statement on this account might have been a test balloon which sadly got punctured by non-response from India!
All in all, buy some popcorn and enjoy the show unfolding out there!
I finish this thread with this video of a Bhikharistani being shown his true worth.
Thanks for your patience!