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Luke Broyles

Luke Broyles
@luke_broyles

Jan 25
31 tweets
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HOW MUCH #BITCOIN to get rich and fund your lifestyle? HOW LITTLE #BITCOIN to protect yourself against inevitable inflation, bank runs, and fiat demise? Are you “too late” to #Bitcoin? What would a 1% allocation do? Let’s run through the MIND BLOWING #BTC math. 🧵👇

January, 2009 was #BTC's first price prediction. @halfin predicted #Bitcoin could become the global dominant payment system, or $10,000,000 per coin. (This is closer to $40,000,000 today) #Bitcoin would not surpass $1 until April 2011... Over two full years later.
How could he have predicted this? What @halfin understood is that upon the invention of perfect money all global wealth would inevitably consolidate into it. Ford, Tesla, and others also foresaw this. Closed (monetary) system inevitably absorbs all open (productivity) systems.
Money is the technology that prices everything else within its own ledger. There is no "top" price prediction for an immutable monetary standard of the human race, THE STANDARD IS THE PRICE. So, a better way to think of #Bitcoin's value is NOT in prices but in purchasing power.
Overlaying a share of monetary stock with a given amount of productivity (or economic value) is a better way to predict the money's value. Worth noting that in a finite ledger, wealth inequality as we know it today does the reverse as we expect today. (A topic for another time.)
First, let's clarify "entities." We have 10 arbitrary "groups" loosely based on today's wide ranging estimates of mega-rich entities to those in poverty (and rounded for simple math). All people, nations, and companies are included in this approximate ranking of wealth.
Second, we have to account for what is often attributed to "Pareto's Principle." The vast majority of productivity is created by the minority of people, and the vast majority of that productivity is created within the minority of that minority. This is true in all productivity.
Third, we must account for the monetary stock to fill into our matrix. It often said there will "only be 21 million #Bitcoin" however this is not true. Accounting for lost #Bitcoin there could easily be lower than 16,000,000 soon. For the sake of simplicity, we will use this.
When we loosely follow a Pareto distribution and today's current ranked distribution of entities, this is what we get. Fascinating results. (Of course; @Michael Saylor⚡️ / MSTR, the US government, and a few select others are these 10 "mega rich" entities.)
This makes sense, as today's #Bitcoin rankings are similar in concept. The largest group have been shrinking in coin size as value of coins goes up. As the value of the monetary unit increases, the average balance decreases. Will continue to do so. bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riches…
Since the value of #Bitcoin doesn't come from #BTC but instead from it accurately reflecting prosperity gains, it is worth remembering the average middle class person of the future will be far wealthier. An average person today is more prosperous than a 20th century billionaire.
Therefore, if #Bitcoin merely SURVIVES... as little as 800,000 sats could purchase a lifestyle in the future far more luxurious than an upper-middle class lifestyle today. Sounds crazy, but: Prosperity increases exponentially over time. #Bitcoin per entity decreases over time.
However, that's not all. There are only just over 2,000,000 #Bitcoin left on exchanges (decreasing fast). There are just under another 2,000,000 left to be mined. Let's take a hyper-bullish scenario and assume there are only 4 million #BTC to be distributed, not 16 million.
If we do the math here, things only get more absurd. In this scenario, as little as $14.81 of #Bitcoin today is as much as the average ENTITY will be able to own in the future. 75,000 sats (in the right time horizon) could be literally LIFE CHANGING to a person of the future.
Some questions for modeling next 20 yrs: What if global wealth and prosperity increases 10x? What if global population increases 2 billion? What if another 2 million #Bitcoin are lost? What if a nation-state begins secretly stacking, and another 3 million #Bitcoin are held?
What if a multi-billionaire TOMORROW allocates 20% of their wealth to #Bitcoin, to absorb 100,000 #BTC off the market? What if companies in the future employ billions of AI-bots to create productivity to fight over remaining #BTC? What if JUST TWO of these scenarios occur?
What if in a few centuries... energy companies do not burn coal or rely on fission, but: Mine asteroids, use fusion, and begin construction of a Dyson Swarm? Based on our model, what if these future companies have ENTIRE BALANCE SHEETS of 10-1000 #BTC? How to price THAT?
An entity selling rights of solar real estate or trading a contract to an asteroid seem insane to us. Mock as we may, the energy productivity and demands of the future are always dwarfing the past. Less in common with the future than the past. twitter.com/luke_broyles/s…
Luke Broyles

Luke Broyles
@luke_broyles

YOU HAVE LESS in common with an average person from the year 2123 than with a Roman citizen from the year 23, even though the future person is 20x closer to you in time. Don’t believe me?... Let's blow your mind in this #Thread 🧵👇
So, are you too late? Absolutely not. A closed monetary system is DESIGNED to never be too late for anyone, no matter how much or little productivity they have. All network participants benefit from equality and simplicity of its design, unlike fiat. twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/st…
Wicked

Wicked
@w_s_bitcoin

Even if #bitcoin’s purchasing power stayed constant for the next 100 years, it’s price in terms of dollars would still go to infinity. #Stock2FOMO
#Bitcoin is a network designed to fight replications of itself. There is no second best. When humans sell rights to the sun or other celestial bodies in the solar system, it is almost certain to be sold in exchange for #Bitcoin. Stop thinking you are "too late"... It's absurd.
With <0.001 #BTC: you can be in the top 50%. With <0.1 #BTC: you can be in the top 1%. With <10 #BTC: you can fund your future generations indefinitely. Perhaps <1000 #BTC could eventually buy a space or fission company that produces more energy than humanity does today…
If you're a #USD millionaire in 2023, you have NO EXCUSE to not buy 0.06 BTC. At $20k per BTC this 0.12% allocation could SAVE your portfolio. If #Bitcoin survives, eventually this 0.12% will be more valuable then the other 99.88% you own. Even better, allocate 1%: 0.5 #BTC
Markets move 1% in a day. Buy your "#BTC insurance" with JUST A DAY'S VOLATILITY, in case these crazy #Bitcoin'ers continue to be right. You'll soon realize allocating 1% puts your other 99% at higher risk as you suck liquidity out of the fractional-reserve ponzi.
Not a USD millionaire? NO EXCUSE to not buy $100 of #Bitcoin (0.005 #BTC) and lock it down... just in case. You spend that much on insurance on an unlikely event, why not spend it on a likely event? Most won't, because understanding #BTC is accepting many uncomfortable truths.
After all... if #Bitcoin truly is the monetary network that @halfin, Ford, and Tesla envisioned: Everything with a price is trending towards zero against an immutable ledger. It's already been happening for 14 years, and getting faster. twitter.com/btc/status/158…
Everything will go to zero against #Bitcoin Are you prepared?
Still might sound absurd to you, and I understand that. But what is more absurd?... This, or @halfin's prediction in 2009? The longer #Bitcoin survives, the lower its risk and the higher its upside. It is designed to be a better savings tool as a function of time.
Personally, I think my 16m model is to bearish and 4m model is too bullish (for now). Either way, the highest risk allocation to #Bitcoin is 0%. Either #Bitcoin is trending towards ZERO, or everything else is. There is no third option. For the former, the chart ain't pretty...
You are NOT an idiot of you don't understand #Bitcoin yet. But considering that #BTC was designed to force asset prices towards zero, has been fulfilling that for 14 years, and that there is zero competition: You are an idiot if you don't allocate JUST 0.12%... Just in case.
Eventually you will realize... #Bitcoin is not about “getting rich.” #Bitcoin is about giving the future world the gift of a monetary system that allows all prosperity to decrease in price forever. #Bitcoin is about helping one's neighbor (and their descendants) thrive. 🧡
Luke Broyles

Luke Broyles

@luke_broyles
Less noise, more signal. #Bitcoin will save your energy. #Truth will save your culture. #Jesus will save your soul.
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