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Baron of the Taiga

Baron of the Taiga

Feb 23, 2023
8 tweets

⚡️🇨🇳: So, 'Le Chinese peace proposal'. Wanted to get out ahead of this to pre-empt what it will likely be about, because it is likely to be spun in various ways as both "creating distance with Russia" and simultaneously proving "the two are now working hand in glove".

In reality, the proposal is a dead letter, whatever it contains because neither side has the necessary political capital to do anything other than continue the war at the moment. The proposal instead has Chinese goals in mind.
What we will likely see is an almost textbook 'neutral' proposal. Bare minimum, establish a total ceasefire along the current lines and freeze the conflict in place, with the details to be worked out across a table at some hypothetical later date.
To most of the world (and I really mean the VAST majority), this seems eminently reasonable and sensible. People think about such things in a very simple way, "stop da killing, bove zides need to tork" without thinking about the military realities.
However, such a proposal is designed with rejection in mind, and specifically Ukraine's loud, obnoxious rejection. Since Istanbul, Russia has always positioned itself as the more reasonable party ready to discuss things (sincere or not).
So this is another situation where Russia can say "that sounds like a great idea, let's get back to the table", knowing full well Ukraine will have none of it. Again, Ukraine looks more and more like the problem.
And I'm sure China also imagines the chorus of Europoor limpets will chime in with their usual belligerent statements, as will the Pentagon, further making them appear to be extreme and culpable in the eyes of the world.
Through all of this, China emerges as a diplomatic powerhouse, a fair arbiter trying to restore peace and harmony. Thus, they get what they want, even as the plan fails and the war continues. China tried to help Ukraine, they tried to stop the war, but Uncle Sam demanded blood.
Baron of the Taiga

Baron of the Taiga

Traditionalist Realpolitik Авалов appreciator, enlightened by @Kaleb_Atlanta I may have done some advisory work in Damascus.
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