I often hear that the collapse of Russia is inevitable if it loses in the war against Ukraine. It makes sense: it is natural for victims to wish harm on the aggressor. But when this rhetoric comes from the highest levels, it actually helps prop up Putin’s criminal regime 1/12

There is already a consensus within Russian society as a whole – and this includes the elite – knows that starting the war was a mistake. However, there is also a widely felt fear that defeat would see Russia fall apart [2/12]

Therefore, a significant part of the Russian population who otherwise would oppose the war, are instead led to back it on the basis that only victory in Ukraine can prevent the country’s collapse [3/12]

Western officials, in particular, would be wise to refrain from speaking in such terms – while I’m sure they do so out of a desire to support their ally, such statements are not helpful in terms of loosening Putin’s grip on power [4/12]

First of all, they are not true – withdrawal from Ukraine would not have to bring about the collapse of Russia, nor would this outcome guarantee peace in the future, for reasons I have said in the past [5/12]

Secondly, threatening Russia’s collapse in the event of defeat or withdrawal from Ukraine makes it much more difficult for Russians who actively oppose Putin and his war to convince others to agree with their position [6/12]

Contrary to popular belief, Putin does not enjoy support from the majority of Russians. The democratic anti-war opposition makes up around 20 per cent of the population, and there are also other factions who oppose Putin but not the war, as we saw during Prigozhin’s mutiny [7/12]

Most of the population falls somewhere in the middle, and they are the ones who need to be convinced that an immediate end to the war would not only improve their lives, but is the only way to do so [8/12]

The days of the Putin regime are numbered. The meaningless war is evidence of that fact, and Ukrainian military success would accelerate its fall. In any case, Russian dictators don’t tend to last long past the age of 70, and Putin is already 71 [9/12]

Once Putin is gone, Russian society will, of course, change considerably – but the direction that change will take depends heavily on which groups are able to gather popular support [10/12]

Unfortunately, if they believe the choice is between continuing the war and seeing the country shatter, many people are likely to back pro-war nationalist factions, rather than those who would work to establish democracy in Russia [11/12]

It is crucial to support the democratic, anti-war forces in Russia by any possible means – and this includes being responsible in the rhetoric that we use. I hope Western leaders will take this on board [12/12]