Mosquito Capital@MosquitoCapital
Nov 15, 2023
6 tweets
A year ago this week, Twitter's new owner fired a bunch of people.
Together, we made some guesses on what would (or wouldn't) happen in the first year after the mass employee culling/exodus. Let's look at how we did! 1/6
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Mosquito Capital@MosquitoCapital
Nov 20 22
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PREDICTIONS THREAD: Twitter Doomposting Edition
"Do you think Twitter will die this week?"
A lot of people have asked me that in the last 48 hours.
And my answer is a pretty hard *no*, for many reasons. It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely. With that said...
Here's the detailed breakdown in image form, feel free to click through to the spreadsheet to leave comments: 2/6
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d
So how did we do? Very well! If we treat anything 20% or above as "that's reasonably likely to happen", you got 16 out of 24, and I got 21 out of 24!
In general, the quality of service was degraded, there were major outages, and the spam problem only got worse. 3/6
My misses were all around being *too* conservative with my percentages. In retrospect, it's far more likely than 2% that this place would get overrun with spam for an extended period of time. And I certainly didn't foresee the ridiculous ratelimits forced error in July. 4/6
Y'all's misses were mostly assigning high probabilities to the more outlandish scenarios - you voted much higher for things like "employees being publicly compromised" and "permanent loss of user data". 5/6
So, what do you think? Did you make any predictions of your own? What happened this year that surprised you, and what didn't surprise you at all? 6/6
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