Tara Moriarty
@MoriartyLab

Nov 19, 2023

Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 28 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right:

Canada: 14.8 - SEVERE
Alberta: 16.9 - SEVERE
British Columbia: 11.2 - SEVERE
Manitoba: 18.6 - SEVERE
New Brunswick: 15.8 - SEVERE
Newfoundland and Labrador: 15.7 - SEVERE
North: 12.5 - SEVERE
Nova Scotia: 12.0 - SEVERE
Ontario: 15.7 - SEVERE
Prince Edward Island: 18.8 - SEVERE
Quebec: 11.0 - SEVERE
Saskatchewan: 18.8 - SEVERE

All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/)

Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)."

To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 EXTRÊME : CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK GRAVE : aucun TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : aucun ÉLEVÉ : aucun MODÉRÉ : aucun FAIBLE : aucun Environ 1 personne sur 28 au Canada est actuellement infectée

Studies show even mild COVID can have long term effects. #MasksKeepUsSafe Graphic courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRCH, used with permission.

A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has 3 inset frames. Top frame: Caption surrounding silhouette image on beige background: Covid Can Turn Your Stomach. Silhouette person bent forward, surrounded by green shaded circles with text: Fever, Heart Burn, Diarrhea & Constipaton, Cramps, Nausea.
Message: Studies show even Mild Covid can have long term effects.
#MasksKeepUsSafe. BIRCH
Illus. by @haziethompson. Graphic courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission.
Image, below, left, is a gender-neutral Superhero wearing an N95 face mask and cape, N95 mask on their t-shirt. The Superhero has their arms high above their head with hands breaking a covid germ-styled metal chain in half. Adjacent image, below, right, are four lines of text: "Break the chain of infection","Limit time indoors”, “Avoid crowded outdoor areas”, ”Wear N95 or equivalent well-fitted masks”

THREAD OUTLINE: - Links to data sources, resources - What’s new this week? -Current COVID Forecasts by province

PLAN DU FIL : - Liens vers des sources de données et des ressources - Quoi de neuf cette semaine ? -Prévisions actuelles du COVID par province

Information about methods, forecast inputs, estimated infections, long COVID cases, hospital and ICU admissions and deaths is available in our biweekly report at link here: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

Canadian COVID-19 Hazard Index

Des infos sur les méthodes, prévisions, infections estimées, cas de COVID à long terme, admissions dans les hôpitaux et soins intensifs ainsi que les décès sont disponibles dans notre rapport bihebdomadaire ici : covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

Canadian COVID-19 Hazard Index

Information about excess mortality in every Canadian province is available in our monthly report at link here: covid19resources.ca/public/excess-

Toxic drug death-adjusted excess all-cause mortality estimates during the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada.

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…

Excess Mortality Tracker

Des informations sur la surmortalité dans chaque province canadienne sont disponibles dans notre rapport mensuel en cliquant ici : covid19resources.ca/public/excess-

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…

Excess Mortality Tracker

Do you have questions about: -this week’s forecast -COVID -vaccines -masks -risks of specific activities We can help! You can join one of our free evening Zoom sessions by signing up at the link here: covid19resources.ca/discussions

COVID Discussions is a virtual kitchen table discussion series, where YOU, the public and experts come together to chat about everything COVID-19 related.

covid19resources.ca/discussions

COVID-19 Conversations

Vous avez des questions? -les prévisions -COVID -les vaccins -les masques -les risques liés à certaines activités Nous pouvons vous aider ! Vous pouvez participer à l'une de nos sessions Zoom gratuites en vous inscrivant ici : covid19resources.ca/discussions

covid19resources.ca/discussions

COVID-19 Conversations

Do you want to see how the forecast is changing as new data come in? You can go to the Forecast Inputs page of the report (p11). Most pages of the report are live. We enter data on Wed, Fri and Sat each week. covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

Canadian COVID-19 Hazard Index

Souhaitez-vous voir comment la prévision évolue avec l'arrivée de nouvelles données ? Vous pouvez consulter la page "Forecast Inputs" du rapport (p11). La plupart des pages du rapport sont en direct. covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

Canadian COVID-19 Hazard Index

Need free masks or RATs? @Donate A Mask Project Canada has your back! They also have disposable and elastomeric masks for sale. All proceeds go to free supplies for those in need, please support them if you can donatemask.ca

donatemask.ca

Donate A Mask

Avez-vous besoin de respirateurs ou de tests rapides gratuits ? @Donate A Mask Project Canada vous soutient !

Ils vendent également des masques jetables et élastomères. Tous les bénéfices sont affectés à des fournitures gratuites pour les personnes dans le besoin. Merci de les soutenir si vous le pouvez. donatemask.ca

donatemask.ca

Donate A Mask

Looking for infographic posters about Covid-19, Post-Covid, Long Covid & Post-Viral Illness for your community boards? Check out @BIRCH on twitter

Cherchez-vous des affiches infographiques sur la COVID-19, la post-COVID, la COVID longue et le syndrome post-COVID pour vos tableaux d'affichage communautaires ? Consultez @BIRCH sur Twitter

WHAT’S NEW THIS WEEK? About 1 in 28 people in Canada are currently infected. COVID Forecast scores in most regions peaked ~Oct 22, near the maximum previous peaks of excess mortality for the epidemic to date in Canada.

Graph showing estimated new daily infections for Canada, the provinces, and territories (15-day rolling averages)

Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 17 (Infections)

5 week waste water averages across Canada are increasing 13%/week. This suggests infections in the general population are still increasing in some regions. Test positivity rates are decreasing 1%/week. This suggests infections in higher risk people are stable/slowly declining.

Graph showing Canada's estimated daily infections since Dec 2021: Model vs Waste water vs Seroreversion-adjusted seroprevalence (5 week mid-aligned rolling averages)

Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 12 (Waste water vs Model-estimated infections: CAN, NL, PEI, NS)

Estimated reported and expected healthcare system impact (hospital and ICU admissions, daily life activity-limiting Long COVID) is decreasing 5%/week. This suggests healthcare system impact may be slowly lessening.

Graph showing Canada's estimated (predicted) new daily COVID hospitalizations, by province, since Dec 2021. (15 day rolling averages)

Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 22 (Hospitalizations, ICU)

Graph showing Canada's estimated (predicted) new daily ICU admissions, by province, since Dec 2021. (15 day rolling averages)

Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 22 (Hospitalizations, ICU)

Graph showing Estimated new daily infections resulting in daily life activity-limiting symptoms lasting >3 months, by province, since Dec 2021. (15 day rolling averages)

Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 19 (Long COVID)

Reported and expected deaths are stable (no change). We have changed some graphics to show historical Canadian minima and maxima to provide context for forecast scores.

Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score

Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC)

Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)

In Canada during 2023, on average 25 COVID-19 hospital outbreaks/week were reported to PHAC. This is 9.8 outbreaks/week for Ontario, if the province has reported all of its hospital outbreaks to PHAC.

As of Nov.17th, at least 20 of Ontario's 34 Public Health Units had a Covid-19 hospital outbreak.

In each of the first two weeks of November, there were over 50 hospital unit outbreaks in Ontario. As of November 17th it’s up to 62 (and 6 PHUs no longer publicly report individual hospital unit outbreaks, so it’s likely higher).

For the safety of all, #masking should be universal in health care. Each week @Safe Care Ontario is sending a different region the clear message: #BringBackMasks for everyone and in all spaces! Subscribe at safecare.initiative.works to get notified about who’s up next.

Advocating for universal masking protections in healthcare. Airborne pathogens like SARS CoV-2 pose a risk to everyone's health and safety and we should all be able to access healthcare safely.

safecare.initiative.works

Safe Care Ontario

Using their simple tool with pre-scripted text and email addresses, you can join @Safe Care Ontario’s campaign to contact institutional, health & political leaders, telling them we need universal masking back in all #Ontario health care facilities!

If your hospital or region isn’t the focus this week, we still need you to help build a critical mass to urge them to change course. It only takes a minute to send the message to #BringBackMasks! Our voices are louder together!

QUOI DE NEUF CETTE SEMAINE ? Au Canada, environ 1 personne sur 28 est actuellement infectée. Les résultats des prévisions de COVID dans la plupart des régions ont atteint leurs points culminants vers le 22 octobre…

près des pics maximaux précédents de surmortalité pour l'épidémie à ce jour au Canada. Les moyennes sur cinq semaines des eaux usées au Canada augmentent de 13 % par semaine. Cela suggère que les infections dans la population générale continuent d'augmenter dans certaines régions

Les taux de positivité des tests diminuent de 1 % par semaine. Cela suggère que les infections chez les personnes à risque plus élevé sont stables ou en baisse.

L'impact estimé, rapporté et attendu sur le système de santé (admissions à l'hôpital et aux soins intensifs, COVID longue limitant les activités de la vie quotidienne) diminue de 5 % par semaine. Cela suggère que l'impact sur le système de santé pourrait diminuer lentement.

Les décès signalés et attendus sont stables (aucun changement). Nous avons modifié certains graphiques pour montrer les minima et maxima historiques canadiens afin de fournir un contexte pour les résultats des prévisions.

Au Canada, durant 2023, 25 éclosions/semaine de COVID-19 ont été rapportées à l’Agence de la santé publique du Canada (PHAC). Ceci correspond à 9,8 éclosions/semaine pour l’Ontario, à condition que la province ait signalé toutes les éclosions hospitalières à PHAC.

Depuis le 17 novembre, au moins 20 des 34 bureaux de santé publique de l'Ontario étaient touchés par une éclosion de Covid-19. Au cours de chacune des deux premières semaines de novembre, plus de 50 éclosions ont été recensées dans les unités hospitalières de l'Ontario.

Depuis le 17 novembre, ce nombre s'élève à 62 (et 6 unités de santé publique ne déclarent plus publiquement les éclosions dans les unités hospitalières individuelles, de sorte qu'il est probable que le nombre d'éclosions soit plus élevé).

Pour la sécurité de tous, le port du masque devrait être universel dans les soins de santé. Chaque semaine, @Safe Care Ontario envoie un message clair à une région différente : Ramenez le port du masque (#BringBackMasks) pour tous et pour toutes, et dans tous les espaces !

Abonnez-vous à safecare.initiative.works pour être informé de la suite des événements. En utilisant leur outil simple avec textes et adresses électroniques prédéfinies, vous pouvez vous joindre à la campagne de @Safe Care Ontario …

safecare.initiative.works

Safe Care Ontario

pour contacter les leaders institutionnels, sanitaires et politiques, en leur disant qu’il faut rétablir le port du masque universel dans tous les établissements de santé en Ontario ! Si votre hôpital ou votre région n'est pas le centre d’intérêt cette semaine …

nous avons quand même besoin de votre aide pour constituer une masse critique afin de les inciter à changer de cap. Il suffit d'une minute pour envoyer le message à #BringBackMasks ! Ensemble, nos voix ont plus d’impact !

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 CANADA SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 28 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~19X higher -Long COVID ~14X higher -Hospitalizations ~9X higher -Deaths ~17X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 14.8
About 1 of every 28 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 938,300-1,168,800
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 19.0X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 13.7X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 8.8X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 16.5X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov-1 déc, 2023 CANADA EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 28 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada: -Infections ~19X supérieur -COVID longue ~14X supérieur -Hospitalisations ~9X supérieur -Décès ~17X supérieur

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 27 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~19X higher -Long COVID ~13X higher -Hospitalizations ~10X higher -Deaths ~19X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 15.7
About 1 of every 27 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 12,000-15,000
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 18.5X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 12.6X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 9.7X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 18.9X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 27 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada: -Infections ~19X

-COVID longue ~13X

-Hospitalisations ~10X

-Décès ~19X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND SEVERE (increasing) About 1 in every 21 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~25X higher -Long COVID ~17X higher -Hospitalizations ~10X higher -Deaths ~21X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Prince Edward Island's COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.8
About 1 of every 21 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 5,600-7,000
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 17.0X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 10.2X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 21.3X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 ÎLE DU PRINCE ÉDOUARD EXTRÊME (en hausse) Environ 1 personne sur 21 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada: -Infections ~25X

-COVID longue ~17X

-Hospitalisations ~10X

-Décès ~21X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 NOVA SCOTIA SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 36 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~12X higher -Long COVID ~10X higher -Hospitalizations ~8X higher -Deaths ~16X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 12.0
About 1 of every 36 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 17,300-21,600
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 12.0X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 10.1X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 8.0X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 16.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid1

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 36 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~12X

-COVID longue ~10X

-Hospitalisations ~8X

-Décès ~16X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 NEW BRUNSWICK SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 22 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~21X higher -Long COVID ~16X higher -Hospitalizations ~10X higher -Deaths ~17X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. New Brunswick’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 15.8
About 1 of every 22 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 21,800-27,100
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 20.8X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 16.0X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 9.8X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 16.8X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 NOUVEAU BRUNSWICK EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 22 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~21X

-COVID longue ~16X

-Hospitalisations ~10X

-Décès ~17X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 QUÉBEC SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 39 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~12X higher -Long COVID ~9X higher -Hospitalizations ~8X higher -Deaths ~13X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the seven day period between Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 11.0
About 1 of every 39 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 135,300-168,600
What these numbers mean: Low <1, Moderate 1-2, Elevated 2-4, High 4-6, Very high 6-8, Severe >8 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 11.5X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 9.0X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 8.1X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 13.4X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES:

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 QUÉBEC EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 39 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~12X

-COVID longue ~9X

-Hospitalisations ~8X

-Décès ~13X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 ONTARIO SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 24 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~22X higher -Long COVID ~14X higher -Hospitalizations ~9X higher -Deaths ~16X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 15.7
About 1 of every 24 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 383,400-477,500
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 21.8X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 14.0X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 9.2X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 16.2X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 ONTARIO EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 24 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~22X

-COVID longue ~14X

-Hospitalisations ~9X

-Décès ~16X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 MANITOBA SEVERE (no change) About 1 in every 14 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~25X higher -Long COVID ~25X higher -Hospitalizations ~11X higher -Deaths ~20X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Manitoba’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.6
About 1 of every 14 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 65,800-81,900
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 25.0X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 11.3X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 19.7X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 MANITOBA EXTRÊME (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 14 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~25X

-COVID longue ~25X

-Hospitalisations ~11X

-Décès ~20X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 SASKATCHEWAN SEVERE (no change) About 1 in every 13 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~25X higher -Long COVID ~25X higher -Hospitalizations ~11X higher -Deaths ~20X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.8
About 1 of every 13 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 61,200-76,200
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 25.0X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 11.1X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 20.3X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 SASKATCHEWAN EXTRÊME (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 13 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~25X

-COVID longue ~25X

-Hospitalisations ~11X

-Décès ~20X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 ALBERTA SEVERE (no change) About 1 in every 20 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~24X higher -Long COVID ~17X higher -Hospitalizations ~9X higher -Deaths ~17X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Alberta’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 16.9
About 1 of every 20 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 134,100-167,100
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 24.4X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 16.8X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 9.4X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 16.9X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 ALBERTA EXTRÊME (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 20 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~24X

-COVID longue ~17X

-Hospitalisations ~9X

-Décès ~17X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 BRITISH COLUMBIA SEVERE (decreasing) About 1 in every 32 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~12X higher -Long COVID ~12X higher -Hospitalizations ~8X higher -Deaths ~13X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. British Columbia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 11.2
About 1 in every 32 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 97,300-121,200
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 12.3X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 11.6X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 7.8X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 13.4X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 COLOMBIE BRITANNIQUE EXTRÊME (en baisse) Environ 1 personne sur 32 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~12X

-COVID longue ~12X

-Hospitalisations ~8X

-Décès ~13X

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON SEVERE (no change) About 1 in every 18 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~12X higher -Long COVID ~21X higher -Hospitalizations ~10X higher -Deaths ~16X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nunavut, NWT, & Yukon’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 12.5
About 1 of every 18 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 4,600-5,800
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 11.7X higher
Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 20.8X higher
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 10.2X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 15.8X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places

If you ARE HIGH RISK: ALSO AVOID outdoor social gatherings
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca

Prévisions de COVID : 18 nov - 1 déc, 2023 NUNAVUT, TNO, YUKON EXTRÊME (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 18 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~12X

-COVID longue ~21X

-Hospitalisations ~10X

-Décès ~16X

Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends. The next forecast will be December 2, 2023.

N'oubliez pas que les prévisions reflètent non seulement les données récentes, mais aussi les chiffres attendus pour les deux semaines à venir, sur la base des tendances moyennes sur cinq semaines. La prochaine prévision sera disponible le 2 décembre 2023.

Thanks to @Pam Gaines #nosuchthingasmildcovid @Liz 🧡 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ @Brittany @lamarche_denise for data input, graphics and translation. Thanks to the whole @COVID-19 Resources Canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan

Merci à @Pam Gaines #nosuchthingasmildcovid @Liz 🧡 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ @Brittany @lamarche_denise pour la saisie des données, les graphiques et la traduction. Merci à toute l'équipe de @COVID-19 Resources Canada pour les commentaires hebdomadaires et pour la poursuite de notre travail. #EnsembleNousPouvons

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofT. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. @COVID_19_Canada. Defend journalism. Opinions mine. @MoriartyLab@med-mastodon.com

Follow on 𝕏

twitter-thread.com/t/1726366538113208777

Tara Moriarty@MoriartyLab

Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 28 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

Tara Moriarty

Tara Moriarty
@MoriartyLab