This is what I mean about losing a war you refuse to admit you’re already in. The "not our fight" appeasement crowd conveniently ignores years of Russian onslaught on their elections, businesses, economies, etc as if the only aggression is tanks—which Russia is also using.

Ukraine is the rarity, a battlefield on which hostile Russian forces can be seen and destroyed. No so simple with Russian oligarchs making donations, energy company acquisitions & IPOs, hackers and propagandists manipulating candidates & elections. But those are also Putin’s war.

Putin was emboldened to launch kinetic war in Europe after years of being emboldened by the West's refusal to defend itself against his assassinations, election interference & economic capture. It was all always war to Russia. The Baltics knew. Ukraine knew. They were ignored.

For those saying Putin was wrong, that he overstepped in Ukraine, underestimated the West's support, etc., ask the only question a dictator cares about: Is Putin still in power? He is still relying on the cowardice of the West and to outlast & bluff them with a much weaker hand.

If Ukraine isn’t winning it is only because its allies do not want it to win. The weapons needed for victory have been withheld while they collect dust in US warehouses. Putin correctly sees this as weakness, not diplomacy, and will continue his hybrid attacks on you in return.

I explained this in Winter Is Coming, what dictators think of proportionate response. Putin isn’t stupid. He sees the overwhelming military might of the US & NATO and thinks "They could destroy me, but they don’t. Because they don’t want to. Because they are weak. So, I attack."

Ukraine is paying a high price in blood and terror. They are not the first and will not be the last if Russia isn’t defeated now. This is the lesson I wish the West would finally figure out. The price always goes up. There will be no better chance than now.