Russia faces a death spiral. And they know it. Russian economy is running into a coffin corner with each day the war on Ukraine continues. Some observers of Russian economy and society look at RF commodity trade as rescue and forget long term cost. 1/ https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1740648635136655603?s=20…

Each day the war on Ukraine consumes enormous ressources. Fuels, ammo, attrited materiel. These are the direct costs of running the war. But Russian economy is already facing mid term effects of the war. Supply issues, lack of qualified workforce, that might become persistent. 2/

Russian officials prepare the country for long war - they don't mean this limited to Ukraine. When the war on Ukraine ends, RF needs to balance two projects: Deal with her stricken economy and finance a huge rearmament project. These are conflicting goals esp. with long war. 3/

Russian conversion to "war economy" is nowhere near historic levels. Up to now mostly outdated materiel is cobbled together. For a serious rearmament RF would have to reactivate production lines of modern equipment and solve the massive sourcing issues of high tech needed. 4/

On top of that are the depleted deep storage stock. Russia will have to replenish those stocks as well and implement a new and more reliable system to maintain and activate deep storage. A herculean task even for a stable western economy. Current production rates won't do. 5/

Talking rearmament we also have to talk T-14, Kurganets, Bumerang and other modern Russian weapon systems projects. And the VKS of course. Most of these projects are an unmitigated disaster, reliance on western components high, mass production far away. 6/ https://x.com/delfoo/status/1740473792252846315?s=20…

As sourcing modern components for weapon systems became an issue, Russia will have to develop industry in the military supply chain. While many RF officials tout the Eurasian axis, reliance on China alone most likely will be seen as too risky. Rearmament will be very costly. 7/

Some projects, like 6th gen fighters, will remain totally out of Russian capabilities. The economy is simply too small, existing airframe production is homeopathic compared to West. Rearmament will most likely focus on existing materiel and much later switch to new designs. 8/

In contrast to the rearmament challenge is Russia's adaption to drone warfare etc. Here domestic production has been efficiently ramped up and improved designs were introduced fast. The ressources needed for that are yet of low scale. EW is also of significant capability. 9/

Russia faces a massiv multi stage rearmament effort after the war on Ukraine. Yet due to the war the economy and society itself have suffered. Russian dependence on commodities and arms trade as cash cow weakens her ability to recover fast. Especially with sanctions intact. 10/

Every month Russia continues her war on Ukraine the long term costs rise: - workforce lost - long term compensation payments rise - GDP, DFI decline - means of prod. & infrastructure degrade - central planning + shadow economy expand - consumer debts increase - demographics 11/

Additional cost to convert back to civilian production are unlikely for the mid term. The immense rearmament effort is vital as Russia sees herself in a broader conflict with the West. Of special note are hydrocarbons. Here RF faces issues in developing new gas & oil fields. 12/

So after the war Russia will have to balance two major reconstitution projects. Economic and military. Both draw from Russia's budget. With each day Russia stays at war the available funds in the future will be smaller, long term cost higher and reconstitution more costly. 13/

As long as Russia's war on Ukraine continues, Russian Economy, and arguably society, are in a death spiral as there is no financial gain out of the war to compensate the costs. Even the tried Russian remedy for that, to stretch and/or freeze the conflict, seems to be failing. 14/

Russia's "egg crisis" is just one of the first visible symptoms that war on Ukraine is also a war on Russia's own future. A clique in the Kremlin and their merry band of profiteers make the Russian Bear eat itself. This will cause increasing distress in "Elites" and populace. 15/

In economy the entrepreneurial and SME sectors are the first to be hit. Increasing threat of bankruptcies, expansion of planning, increase of the already high state owned enterprise quota & consumer debt are expression of vanishing economic freedoms. Society will change too. 16/

@Vlad Vexler & others have already noted a shift back to soviet style "alternate reality" propaganda. This happens as the economy is increasingly put on planning footing. Criticism of partying elites in Moscow, public apologies and Stalin cult all herald a soviet renaissance. 17/

When @Alexander Etkind writes about Russia's war against modernity it's clear that this war is also against herself. The hyper revisionism, under pressure of economic and social tensions, leads to a broad expansion of soviet style governance. Consumer debt induced modern slavery. 18/

Russia gradually turns into a totalitarian regime increasingly incapable of financing her global ambitions. We already see how RF is using hybrid warfare, stoking conflicts and multiple polycrisis to compensate for her limited capabilities. This will dramatically increase. 19/

Russia's way out of the economic trap alignes with Chinas interest. Key is to control access to strong Western economies as markets. These markets financed RF's spree of aggression in the first place. While CN is no military ally in this respect it is already co combattant. 20/

The longer Russia wages war, the deeper it get's into the economic coffin corner, the more it will rely on and increase hybrid warfare on Western liberal democracy. The West is woefully unequipped to deal with this attack. Russia's allies in our societies operate unimpeded. 21/

Russia's development into a Patruchevian neo feudal/soviet system will eventually lead to instability and collapse, if only for the reason that Western democracies survive and reign in RF economically. The Russian Federation's demise is a feature of her policies, not a bug. 22/

The more the West waits, the more Russia will cannibalize herself. The growing dichotomy between eco-social situation and narcissistic propaganda will result in even riskier RF foreign policy. The West needs to stop this development before risk and incalculability explode. 23/

Russia being in a downward spiral isn't new. We can draw lessons from the past. Reagans policies significantly reduced risk by accelerating the Soviet transition thru the chaotic phases of economic decline. We need to stop stabilizing Russia like after the Prigozhin mutiny. 24/

Before all we need to stop acting co-dependent. We are still enablers of pathologic Russian behaviour when we rationalize her irrationality, when we allow room for her brutal acting out. Let's set clear boundaries and arm Ukraine up. Russia's collapse is a feature, not a bug. 25/