85% of the KGB budget during the late Soviet Union was spent on disinformation operations. KGB agents’ annual review accounted for how many fake news stories they created and successfully propagated. The goal was to use freedom of speech to undermine enemies (i.e. the U.S.)

In the 1980s, the KGB used the Indian newspaper “the Patriot” to claim that the U.S. invented HIV. They then paid two East German virologists to publish a paper in an academic journal supposedly proving the allegation. It ended up on the nightly news with Dan Rather.

Part of the success of that campaign was because journalists aren’t trained in reading technical documents, and therefore couldn’t recognize junk science. The same is true for law, and other technical professions.

Thanks to the work of @Maria Snegovaya, we now know that up to 90% of officials in the Soviet Union retained their posts in what became the russian federation. The FSB, successor of the KGB, largely remained in tact. And so did its disinformation operations.

Prior to becoming dictator for life, Putin was head of the FSB. The security apparatus effectively controls the russian state, a state that’s a criminal enterprise masquerading as a nation-state.

Disinformation operations continued (and continue) unabated. The Obama birther conspiracy originated in russia, was adopted by Donald Trump, and forced Obama to release his birth certificate showing he was born in Hawai’i (and therefore eligible to be President).

In 2016, the russian goverment organized protests and counter protests outside mosques in Texas using Facebook, and in Florida. In 2014, russia claimed Ukrainians shot down MH-17 over occupied Donetsk. At Trump’s behest, russia hacked Clinton campaign emails. And legacy media didn’t call it out at the time.

Last month, ODNI Haines released the Intelligence Community’s Assessment of foreign influence on the 2022 midterm elections. China and Iran have adopted russia’s playbook in election meddling. Russia’s goal was to undermine U.S. support for Ukraine. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIC-Declassified-ICA-Foreign-Threats-to-the-2022-US-Elections-Dec2023.pdf…

Russia largely targeted the Democratic Party, because they (rightly) perceived President Biden as unifying allies to respond to support Ukraine. The also targeted Republicans perceived as anti-russia (like Liz Cheney). They even waited until the day after the midterms to withdraw from half of Kherson in order to deny Democrats a perceived “win” during election week.

Moving away from hack-and-leak, operations, they focused on narratives that would divide U.S. society along idealogical lines using “traditional” family values (anti-LGBT, anti-secularism, anti-intellectualism, anti-abortion). They conducted extensive sociological surveys to make sure their messaging worked.

Russia targeted: • Left-leaning audiences with the message that supporting Ukraine would risk war with russia. (E.g. Tulsi Gabbard fans) • Males over 40 interested in right-wing conservatism with the message that multiculturalism and “leftist ideals” drove the U.S. into “crisis.” (E.g. Trump) •White and Latino lower-middle class Americans who support “family values,” and Americans who felt aggrieved by purported social media censorship that reaffirmed this conspiracy theory (E.g. Elon Musk).

Moscow promoted false narratives that the Bidens were involved in corrupt dealings in Ukraine. (Burisma). Today, the House had a farcical hearing on it, which I’ll cover later. The Kremlin also pushed personas favoring Draconian immigration laws. (And now, we find Ukraine aid blocked because of an immigration dispute.)

Russia and Trump continue to undermine US institutions by spreading the Big Lie — that elections are stolen. Kremlin actors targeted the Democratic Party in Arizona, where @Kari Lake carried water for the russians, spreading lies about her loss. She’s now facing legal consequences for defamation. They also amplified conspiracy theories that Sam Bankman Fried of FTX notoriety donated exclusively to Democrats.

Remember Tara Reade? She accused President Biden of sexual assault, and then fled to Moscow and gave a boring hours-long press conference with russian state media. Russia was pushing her false allegations here in the run up and following the 2022 midterms.

Looking ahead to 2024, russia is helping Trump push the lie that Biden is responsible for trying to put him in prison. The truth is Trump broke the law, and multiple courts have found he engaged in Insurrection. The Intelligence Community expects russian attacks on our elections to increase exponentially, since russia tends to interfere much more in Presidential campaigns.

Countries living near russia are used to this. Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, and Estonia in particular. And they’re resilient. They have whole media shows dedicated to debunking russian intelligence, and their populations are very cautious of russian meddling.

What @Yewleea 🇺🇦, @Sir Grumpsalot and I try to do is frame the news in terms of russian propaganda, which legacy Western media is terrible at. On the next few episodes of #UkraineWarBrief, we’ll do just this. Starting with the oral arguments yesterday in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, where Trump claimed he’s absolutely immune from criminal prosecution.

While you’re here! Listen to Serhii Plokhy, Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard, Director of @HURI Harvard, author of The Gates of Europe and the Russo-Ukrainian War! Available on all streaming platforms. https://open.spotify.com/episode/25Kmp0zXsCIkGkq9xrqMvR…