1/ Last thread on Russian AFVs in storage. As you all can guess, the final thread is on BMPs.
2/ @Highmarsed and I found 5,766 BMPs of all kinds in storage before the war x.com/HighMarsed/sta
Highmarsed@HighMarsed
Feb 10 24
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1/ Full count and identification of AFVs and other armored vehicles at Russian storage bases (pre-war), made together with @Jompy . We found almost 14000 vehicles across 39 bases. I have added all individual counts and additional info below.
3/ as well as another 864-869 BMPs in BTRZs. x.com/Jonpy99/status
Jompy@Jonpy99
Mar 05 24
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1/ Prewar AFV and tank count of Russian BTRZs (BTRZ stands for Armor Repair Plant) in collaboration with @Highmarsed. Before diving into the count, BTRZs aren't actual storage facilities, but factories where equipment previously in storage is set to be refurbished for service.
4/ Worth noting that well over 1,000 BMPs were little more than broken hulls, clearly only useful as spare parts donors. x.com/HighMarsed/sta
Highmarsed@HighMarsed
Dec 29 23
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2/ I have added some ground footage of the 111th and 2456th below and I think it is save to say that likely many more of the remaining BMPs will never see combat, especially from the 769th, 111th and 2456th.
5/ We also found ~600-700 BMP-based support vehicles, such as BREM-2s or PRP-1s, which aren't actual combat vehicles but we included in the count. x.com/HighMarsed/sta
Highmarsed@HighMarsed
Feb 09 24
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3/ The 94th holds a lot of BMPs and other armored vehicles which are likely not regular BMPs but rather PRPs or other variants. Only few of them have been removed.
x.com/HighMarsed/sta
6/ With all that said, numbers clearly dropped. There isn't that much on figures per se to say, as HighMarsed already did on his own a pretty good analysis on stored BMPs a few months ago and we barely found any new satellite footage this time around. x.com/HighMarsed/sta
Highmarsed@HighMarsed
Dec 29 23
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1/ Russia has removed 1081 BMPs from storage bases since 2021 and at least 765 of the remaining 3730 vehicles are visibly broken beyond repair (satelite imagery), but the real number is likely higher which I explain in this thread. All individual assesments are linked below
7/ Mostly, this thread is about caveats on Russian BMPs in storage. First, I counted BMPs per type in updated images: 539 BMP-2s, 5 BMP-3s, still close to 1,000 broken hulls, several BMP-based hundred supports vehicles and the many rest are BMP-1s. x.com/Jonpy99/status
Jompy@Jonpy99
Mar 16 24
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Well, that took less time than expected. I think as of the latest pics available there were 539 BMP-2s and 3 BMP-3s in storage facilities in Russia.
Jompy@Jonpy99
Mar 16 24
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5* BMP-3s, not 3. That's if I have IDid them correctly, of course.
9/ We can clearly see that BMP-2s are gonna be added to the list of Russian armored vehicles that are goind extinct in Ukraine, just like MT-LBs or BTR-50s. x.com/Jonpy99/status
Jompy@Jonpy99
Mar 09 24
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@Jakub Janovsky 1/ Small thread on MT-LBs in Russian storage as we're closing in on 1,000 losses in Ukraine.
x.com/Rebel44CZ/stat
10/ At the current rate of losses, I'd be thoroughly surprised if Russia still retain any BMP-2 in storage by this year's end. But we also have to account that not every hull will be worth restoring, some will inevitable be only good to cannibalize them.
11/ However, as with any equipment refurbished, there's a time delay between taking them fron storage yards and puting them in service, so time will pass between the moment the last BMP-2 is taken from storage and the moment is deployed in Ukraine.
12/ This will probably mean that Russia will devote more refurbishing capabilities to BMP-1s to compensate and keep their quantitative edge over Ukraine. x.com/Jonpy99/status
Jompy@Jonpy99
Mar 09 24
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15/ However, this could also mean more resources are invested in other armor refurbishment, such as BMPs or even older BTR-60/70s. As some would love to say, "time will tell".
13/ The number of total BMPs in storage nowadays from HighMarsed's thread to this one obviously very slightly increased as we found some more bases and we counted support vehicles. x.com/HighMarsed/sta
14/ Now, let's take a look at some bases to see actual drops in storage. First, the Sevastopol base, where there were only BMP-2s: prewar vs June 2022.
15/ The 3018/6018th: prewar vs March 2023. x.com/HighMarsed/sta
Highmarsed@HighMarsed
Feb 10 24
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5/ You may have noticed that the number of BMPs at the 3018th also increased because of 313 covered vehicles that cant be identified reliably. They are now added as BMPs but at least 241 of them could also be MT-LBs. Regardless only 40 remained in March 2023.
16/ The 769th: prewar vs September 2023.
17/ The 22nd: prewar vs July 2023.
18/ The only base were BMPs increased was at the 349th: x.com/HighMarsed/sta
20/ But besides the 349th, every other base has seen a big drop in stored BMPs. It's true that they didn't remove as many BMPs as tanks for most of the year, which is weird when you think about it. I think that's because they had a lot stored indoors, and
21/ possibly they also requisitioned BMPs and BTRs from other security services. TMB2021 stated that the Border Guard and Rosgvardia had up tp 2,700 BTRs and BMPs in service. Now,a dn for the past year or more, they're down to their storage facilities.
22/ Overall, even if always of a decreasing quality, Russia still has BMP(-1s)s to carry on the war effort for another 1,5-2,5 years IMHO. There's a lot of variables to that, such as how many stored BMPs are actually reparable, how long will it take them...
22/ But we shouldn't underestimate them. Refurbishing armor is clearly something they have become quite adept at doing over the last 2 years.
23/ And we also have to account for external variables, such as Russia buying armor from third parties, and that applies to all kinds of equipment, not just BMPs and AFVs in general.
24/ I'll post in a short while another thread to explain some bits and make the overall number of stored AFVs feel slightly less threatening by showing that many thousands of vehicles will never seel the light, but with I'm done with stored Russian AFV threads for now.
Jompy
@Jonpy99
So many fucking hours wasted in this accursed site trying to drill into people's heads that 1 tank gone from storage ≠ 1 tank destroyed
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