1/7》GCP emission data shows 185.58 ppmv of fossil carbon emissions from 1959-2021 (plus a poorly constrained amt of non-fossil "land use change emissions"). Only about 5.56 ppmv (3%) was CO2 released from limestone [CaCO3] as it's baked to make cement. https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1753806747658051899…

Mankind adds about 5 ppmv of fossil CO2 to the air each year. The net sum of all natural fluxes remove about 2.5 ppmv of CO2 in an average year. https://sealevel.info/carbon/carbonflux.html… Precise CO2 level measurements began in 1958. If you run the numbers you'll find that ≥164% of the CO2 increase since 1958 was due to human CO2 emissions. That's not a typo. The amount of CO2 in the air increased much less than the amount we've added, because Nature (the sum of all natural CO2 fluxes) is removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Now I'll show you the numbers, and the math. Buckle up! https://sealevel.info/carbon/ First, consider the anthropogenic emissions: Here's a spreadsheet of data from the Global Carbon Project (except that I've converted their MtCO2 figures to MtC): https://sealevel.info/carbon/global.1751_2021.ems13.txt… https://sealevel.info/carbon/global.1751_2021.ems13.xlsx… Here's the same spreadsheet, to which I've added a couple of rows with summed emission data for 1959-2021 (rows 290 and 291): https://sealevel.info/global.1751_2021.ems13_with_sums_for_1959-2021.xlsx… Aside (conversion factors): ‍‍‍‍‍‍ ‍‍1 PgC = 3.66419 Gt CO2. ‍‍‍‍‍‍ ‍‍1 ppmv CO2 ≅ 7.8024 Gt CO2 = 2.1294 PgC. The GCP's emission data shows 185.58 ppmv of fossil carbon emissions. (Aside: only 5.56 ppmv of that is listed as CO2 from cement manufacturing. That's the CO2 released from limestone [CaCO3] as it's baked in the kiln. It is commonly claimed that cement manufacturing is responsible for up to 8% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but that figure includes an estimate of emissions from the fossil fuels which are burned to heat the kilns, typically accounting about half of the total CO2 emissions from cement manufacturing, though that varies according to how the kiln is fired.) In addition to fossil CO2 (from burning fossil fuels and making cement), the GCP estimates that 24.67 to 53.20 ppmv of CO2 has been released since 1958 due to "Land Use Changes" (average of 3 studies = 39.98 ppmv). Obviously, those figures are poorly constrained. 185.58 + 24.67 = 210.25 ppmv (their smallest estimate which includes averaged land use emission estimates). 185.58 + 39.98 = 225.56 ppmv (their total including averaged land use emission estimates from 3 studies). 185.58 + 53.20 = 238.78 ppmv (their largest estimate which includes averaged land use emission estimates). If we add a generous ±10% uncertainty to those figures, we can say with very high confidence that during the years 1959 through 2021 (inclusive) mankind added 167 to 263 ppmv of CO2 to the atmosphere. Now, consider the atmospheric CO2 measurements. These are from Mauna Loa: https://sealevel.info/co2.html (Hover your mouse over the CO2 trace to see the data for any date.) They show: 1958 CO2 level (extrapolated from a partial year of measurements): 315.34 ppmv 1959 CO2 level: 315.98 ppmv Estimated seasonally adjusted CO2 level at start of 1959 = (315.34+315.98)/2 = 315.66 ppmv 2021 CO2 level: 416.45 ppmv 2022 CO2 level: 418.56 ppmv Estimated seasonally adjusted CO2 level at start of 2022 = (416.45+418.56)/2 = 417.505 ppmv Total increase in CO2 level from start of 1959 to start of 2022 = (417.505 - 315.66) = 101.845 ppmv Now we'll do the arithmetic: Thus we now know that, since 1958 (through 2021): ● mankind has added 167 to 263 ppmv of CO2 to the atmosphere (probably between 185 and 239 ppmv). ● the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by only 102 ppmv. ● So, nature has removed a net total of ((185 to 239) - 102) = 83 to 137 ppmv CO2 from the atmosphere. (167/102) ≅ 164% (263/102) ≅ 258% So: ● 164% to 258% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1958 was anthropogenic. That's proof that more than  the entire increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1958 is man-made. Note that to deduce that fact we don't need any models (Bern, or any other). We don't need isotope data. We don't need to know residence times, turnover times, or adjustment times. We don't need to estimate flows between individual carbon reservoirs. We don't need to know anything at all about the many individual natural CO2 fluxes. And, since we're using whole-year averages, we don't need to know anything about vegetation-driven and temperature-driven seasonal patterns or how they differ with latitude. Many of those things are interesting, and some of them are important for other reasons, but they are irrelevant to the proof of the fact that all of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1958 is due to human emissions.

sounds too good to be true! are there some sources, ideally peer-reviewed on this. I am just cautious before I feel excited :)