1/10 How will Iran's escalation from last night and its implications impact Ukraine? Analysis by @Joni Askola

2/10 Last night's escalation was unprecedented, marking the first direct strike on Israel from Iranian territory. Israel's air defense systems performed admirably, preventing potentially significant casualties. The world will be captivated by Israel's subsequent response.

3/10 This escalation likely unfolded according to Israel's strategic plan. Israel foresaw that its strike on the Iranian embassy would provoke a direct retaliation from Iran to save face. The question remains: why did Israel deliberately provoke Iran into retaliating?

4/10 In the coming days, we will uncover the reasons behind Israel's provocation of Iran. It's probable that Israel will be compelled to respond. While this doesn't guarantee the start of a war, the likelihood has grown. What are the implications for Ukraine?

5/10 An escalation in the Middle East could have some detrimental impact on Ukraine, as it would divert attention away from the region. This shift in focus could potentially benefit russia. While Israel was under attack, Kharkiv was getting hit by the same Iranian Shahed drones.

6/10 Currently, Ukraine's dependence on US aid has decreased as a result of the actions of Trump and Johnson. Therefore, any US assistance at this point is seen as a bonus, and a complete shift of US focus to the Middle East would have minimal impact on Ukraine.

7/10 On the upside, last night's retaliation by Iran on Israel could prompt Johnson to expedite the vote on the Ukraine and Israel aid bill.

8/10 From a military perspective, Ukraine stands to benefit from an escalation. The US would increase its defense production, while also encouraging Europe to enhance its efforts beyond current plans. This could lead to more equipment available for Ukraine to acquire or receive.

9/10 Another positive impact for Ukraine would be that Iran would no longer be able to supply equipment to russia, while also necessitating support from other members of the axis, including russia.

10/10 The upcoming days will be intriguing as we await the rationale behind Israel's decision to provoke Iran. We will observe whether the situation intensifies, but at least we are aware of some of the implications for Ukraine if it does.