Empires have to loose the imperial wars, says prominent historian @Timothy Snyder. A great power losing its petty war is a regular, even typical event. If anything will help Russia as the state, it will be its defeat. As much as I agree, there is s caveat.

Why are so many Americans, Germans, Austrians, and others afraid of Russia’s defeat and collapse? Not because they ‘love’ a Russian mystique but because they love the Russian money. They have it a lot, and they love it very much. They’d lose it with Russia’s defeat and collapse.

All Russian money — 100% of “the Russian greatness” — come from oil trade. Russia sells more oil, and sells it cheaper, than anybody else. Stop this trade and Russia loses its mystique. Its military defeat happens in a couple of months. Regime change is inevitable. You know it.

But this trade is very profitable for the buyers. They save billions, over years—trillions, on this trade. Moreover, from its “earned” (in fact, stolen) money, Russia pays bribes and kickbacks. This is the best kept secret of global political economy.

This oil pollutes the air, finances wars, corrupts societies, and destroys the planet. The Russian defeat is inextricable from the global decarbonization. But there are people and institutions who love their profits more than they are afraid of war and destruction.

Every additional shell or drone brings the Russian defeat. But also every additional panel, windmill or bycicle. Understanding this connection is the key to the future.

“Bloodlands” has been written, a great book. However, “Blood Oil” has also been written. Many other books establish the key connection with ironclad certainty. There is nothing new in this connection. If its policy implications still feel outlandish, it’s your problem.

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