1/12 Patience is key: Ukraine should refrain from seeking to launch a counteroffensive right after the situation stabilizes at the end of the year, or in the near future thereafter. Analysis by @Joni Askola

2/12 Based on the ISW's assessment, it is highly probable that Ukraine will achieve stabilization of the frontlines in the coming months and might have the ability to initiate limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025. This assessment is controversial.

3/12 Ukraine will possess the capacity to carry out limited counteroffensives in areas where russia has made gains without the opportunity to fortify. However, it is advisable for Ukraine to refrain from planning any major offensive operations until the summer of 2025 or beyond.

4/12 It is probable that the war will endure, and Ukraine is not under pressure to rush. Time is in Ukraine's favor, and Western production is rapidly increasing. Additionally, sanctions will gradually inflict more significant harm on russia over time.

5/12 One of Ukraine's most significant errors in this war was hastily launching the 2023 summer counteroffensive under external pressure and without adequate preparedness. Ukraine cannot afford to and should avoid making the same mistake again.

6/12 Ukraine does not have to launch an offensive or recapture all territories through military means. Instead, it needs to defend and inflict enough losses on russia to compel them to give up. It is probable that this will take years to come to fruition.

7/12 Should external pressure to launch an attack become overwhelming, Ukraine can strategize for future offensives, but this would require a significantly larger and better-trained manpower. They would also need air support and extensive practice over months before attacking.

8/12 russia has been unable to seize control of any of the 23 Ukrainian regional capital or special status cities in over two years of full-scale war, despite their extensive efforts. From a military standpoint, it represents a significant and embarrassing russian failure at best

9/12 russians are willing to tolerate the war and casualties as long as they perceive themselves to be winning or having a potential for victory. It will require time for them to gradually recognize the reality. Once this realization sets in, Putin will face more difficulties.

10/12 Ukraine and its allies must exercise patience and make every effort to minimize territorial, human, and material losses while biding their time. To achieve this, Ukraine needs to mobilize its forces, and the West must provide support in terms of equipment and training.

11/12 Analyzing past and current actions, and being able to openly discuss mistakes, is crucial. However, it's even more vital to acknowledge that the Ukrainian command is knowledgeable and has access to extensive information. Trusting their expertise is of utmost importance.

12/12 Source: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1784390565695557928… https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024…