"Peace" & Russia - a realistic perspective.
Once in a while, usually after assorted nuclear threats, the Kremlin & their allies in the West float the idea of "peace" w/ Russia.
Dissecting this traditional item of cognitive warfare first raises the question:
Peace with whom?
1/
Once in a while, usually after assorted nuclear threats, the Kremlin & their allies in the West float the idea of "peace" w/ Russia.
Dissecting this traditional item of cognitive warfare first raises the question:
Peace with whom?
1/
NEXTA@nexta_tv
May 24
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⚡️ Putin wants to "freeze" the war on the current front line
The Kremlin is ready for "peace talks" if Russia retains the borders along the current front line, Reuters writes, citing four Russian sources.
"Putin can fight as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire - to freeze the war," said one of the four, a senior official.
Reuters
Russian Military Terrorism.
"Peace" then, but in which context & on what "front"?
Russia currently uses a form of military terrorism to make us focus on their assault on Ukraine. There is no strategic military perspective, they terrorize amplifying an impetus to "end" the war.
2/
In the context of Russian cognitive warfare her military terrorism serves the purpose to conceal four important aspects:
1. The extent of Russia's aggression.
2. Russian expansionist intentions.
3. The weakness of Russia's strategic (operative) posture.
4. Our united strength.
3/
First goal of Russian military terror is to distract her adversaries from assessing the extent of Russian aggression. The "noise" created by military brutality in Ukraine is designed to overshadow the multiple vectors with which Russia is attacking western liberal democracies.
4/
Russian information war, sabotage, clandestine and regime change ops lead to a diffuse perception of Russia's broad hybrid attack on the West. There is an implicit notion, that if "peace" is established in Ukraine this likely leads to broader reduction of Russian aggression.
5/
Russia is set for war.
That Russia uses peace negotiations and frozen conflicts merely as tool to further war has been widely discussed already. What's often overlooked is the system theoretical component. Russia, as a "system of state" has inherent issues and inertia.
6/
Russian vertical of power, her domestic & foreign policy have been tuned over decades to first of all serve survival of the Kremlin regime. War, external and internal aggression/violence have become embedded in a hyper-complex system of interdependencies. This creates inertia.
7/
For Russia war, external violence, has become an integral part of the system just as internal violence is part of an autocratic regime. Violence is a foundation of state and policy. Scholars like @Alexander Etkind @Jochen Kleїnschmїdt 🇺🇦 link this wider with extraction centric economy.
8/
Russian domestic & external propaganda are a visible expression how deeply embedded violence is on all levels of state/society. In foreign policy Russia's ongoing conflicts and "alliances" serve as further indicators.
To make peace Russia would first need to become peaceful.
9/
Russia is set for war through simple inertia of how her internal & external systems are designed. This inertia needs dedicated political effort - and time - to overcome. An internal chaotic phase may ensue or be necessary, like defeat by Ukraine.
Russia is incapable of peace.
10/
Russia has warmaking not peacemaking capability.
The incapability of current Russia to exist in peace is also her most significant weakness. Russia can't be sure of more than transactional level stability in foreign relations with her "allies". Hybrid aggression is the key.
11/
For Russia the world is akin to "Here be Dragons" on medieval maps. Everything "outside" is a potential threat to Russia's existence. Russian borders are not fix, her influence needs to be expanded to control domains where potential threats can emerge.
The "satanic West".
12/
For Russia her very existence has become an uphill battle with the rest of the world. Main target are systems of rule based order, alliances, that structure and shape the capabilities of her adversaries. Russian approach is to destabilize and push order into a chaotic phase.
13/
Any sort of peace treaty or negotiated settlement represents a small domain/system of rule based order. Hence a treaty is exactly what Russian doctrine is designed to attack in the first place. From a Russian perspective a treaty exists to be destabilized, tossed into chaos.
14/
Some, like @Jake Sullivan argue that it is possible to "price in" that Russia will break any agreement. This yet leads to accepting a managerial role vis a vis Russia, which is in itself creating a structure that Russia will use as attack vector.
Managing Russia won't work.
15/
Russia is only strong when we are weak!
Sounds simple enough. It's simple enough. But then there is temptation to get lost in the depth of hyper-complex systems & dependencies. Add to that Russia pushing things into chaotic phase and we end up in the realm of indecisiveness.
16/
The only solution available to dealing with Russia is to not allow our decision-making being dragged by Russia into the real of complexity. The old adage of the cold war, to keep credible red lines and hedge in aggression is the only defense vs Russia's attack on our systems.
17/
Russia is currently unable to make any sort of peace. We need to accept that we will face a latent state of conflict with Russia until they developed the capability to become a fundamentally peaceful nation and actor.
For that we need unity and a realistic view on Russia.
18/
Thanks:
Many thanks to a secretive friend, @Martin Sauerbrey , @Jochen Kleїnschmїdt 🇺🇦 , @Keir Giles , @Pedro and the late Niklas Luhmann for giving inspiration.
Addendum 1:
With Russia you always need to be open to encounter absurdity at post nuclear level.
I'd not be surprised if Putin and his puppet proclaim they have signed a peace deal.
x.com/DAlperovitch/s
Dmitri Alperovitch@DAlperovitch
May 24
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And this is likely why he brought Yanukovych…
Putin: “The legitimacy of the current head of state [of Ukraine] has ended”
Sparty
@spartyflyboy
Passionate about building resilience to defend freedom & democracy.
Mixing Luhmann & deterministic chaos.
Also semi Popperian particle pusher.
Гопник = block
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