Anders Östlund - Ї@andersostlund
Aug 17
11 tweets
I am not much for conspiracy theories but here we have three news items that sits nicely together. 1. Biden is not using funds for Ukraine, 2. Germany is planning to cut almost all aid to Ukraine, and 3. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was about to happen.
Biden was planning to get reelected in November, Scholz in September next year. Maybe both had an idea about "peace" or "cease fire" in Ukraine as a part of their election campaigns? There has just been too much talk about negotiations lately for it to be just random.
Obviously Ukraine would have a really hard time to continue the war without support from neither Germany or the U.S., so both Biden and Scholz have the power to push Ukraine into negotiations, whatever the Ukrainians think about it.
Then Biden and Scholz could run their campaigns based on being peace makers. Order in Europe would be reestablished, Germany could call for an end to sanctions and restart corrupt dealings with Russia.
When Russia would break the cease fire or resume the war against Ukraine Biden and Scholz could blame others for it. "At least they gave peace a chance!" Looking on how Washington and Berlin have handled the war the last few years actually make sense when one look at it this way. Germany never wanted Ukraine to win in the first place, and would probably have been fine with Ukraine disappearing from the map already in 2024. At least Steinmeier always gave the impression of being annoyed with Ukrainian's wish for independence and freedom. Biden might just be a wuzz. It's still unclear if that moronic idea about reset with Russia in 2009 was his or Obama's idea.
Thanks to Ukraine's successful operation in Kursk at least the "negotiations" with Russia are off the table. And luckily Biden realized that neither losing the election or sitting in the White House until his 86th birthday were not so good ideas. Hopefully Harris will have bigger balls than Biden (and keep in mind that Trump was the only U.S. president that armed Ukraine prior to 2022). Scholz is another issue. I fail to understand why German parliamentarians have not yet dethroned him, but at least he is doing bad in the polls and might have to go in 2025. Then Germany might become a country with a feeling for right and wrong.
More to be said later on. Below I share stories related to the three news items I mentioned above. Biden's failing to use aid, Scholz plan to cut aid altogether, and the aborted
Marie@MariaJagcat
Aug 17
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Excellent letter to @President Biden from Gen. Ben Hodges and Gen. Philip Breedlove and several former US officials.
Ukraine advocates- please read and share it. Ukraine advocates here should develop a plan to increase its public profile.
I want to emphasize: 1/
German Aid to Ukraine@deaidua
Aug 17
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Unbelievable. According to FAZ research, Germany's Minister of Finance, with the support of the Chancellor, ordered a freeze on additional military aid to #Ukraine. No money for the next few years; only aid that has already been announced is allowed to be financed and delivered.
In a letter obtained by the FAZ, Germany's Finance Minister Christian Lindner describes that the Ukraine aid is to be financed via the $50 billion package recently agreed by the G7, which is covered by the interest on frozen Russian assets. This is (unfortunately) not the first time we have heard about this.
One source reports that, for example, an available IRIS-T fire unit could not be financed recently because the lockdown was already in effect. Diehl Defence was able to offer a fire unit immediately after the devastating Russian bomb attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv in July because another customer wanted to forego the delivery in favour of Ukraine. However, the money was not approved — against the wishes of Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.
Unfortunately, this confirms my suspicions from July... now we know why Norway is financing the next IRIS-T SLM firing unit with ~ €86 million via the IAAD, which will be delivered in autumn. But that makes no sense! This is already promised aid?! Shouldn't this not be allowed to be financed?
According to the source, there was a major dispute within the government after the lockdown was announced. The Ministry of Defence (Pistorius), the Foreign Office (Baerbock) and the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (Habeck — also Vice Chancellor) did not agree with it at all.
According to the FAZ research, the funds for 2024 have already been fully bound (already known) and the planned €4 billion for 2025 are already overbooked. Only €3 billion is planned for 2026 and currently €0.5 billion for 2027 and 2028. Meaning → No new pledes possible.
I'm speechless.
NEXTA@nexta_tv
Aug 17
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WP: Ukraine's offensive has derailed secret talks on partial ceasefire with Russia
The newspaper says that Kyiv and Moscow had planned to send their delegations to Qatar to negotiate through mediators a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure on both sides.
However, the events were reportedly disrupted by the AFU offensive in the Kursk region.
Think about it. The U.S. has only provided leadership due to demands and power, Germany has been a constant weak chain in the western alliance. Neither has been eager to give Ukraine any weapons that could actually help Ukraine win. There has always been the idea that negotiations will end the war, at Ukraine's cost of course. "Well done Ukraine, you put up a good fight but now it's over. Nobody thought you would last this long anyway". Not providing Ukraine with the weapons needed makes a Ukrainian loss in the war a foregone conclusion.
Anders Östlund - Ї
@andersostlund
Swede by birth, European by choice.
Live in Kyiv but temporarily is abroad. Non resident fellow at @cepa.
I try to reply to comments but time is a constraint.
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