Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Aug 28, 2024
46 tweets
I am profoundly, deeply, and consistently committed to putting Americans' interests first.
A free Taiwan is better for America.
*But only if it can be done at a reasonable level of cost and risk.* If it cannot, we cannot destroy our military in a losing, highly costly war. 1/
Wall Street Journal Opinion@WSJopinion
Aug 28 24
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Can Taiwan count on the U.S. if Trump wins? The race to curry favor with the former president is leading some Republican foreign-policy experts in disturbing directions, write @Mark Montgomery and @Brad Bowman
on.wsj.com/3T9yl0Z
America's core interest is in preventing China from dominating Asia, the world's largest market area. Keeping Taiwan free is better for that goal.
But it is not essential. We can pursue this goal without Taiwan, albeit at a much higher cost and more difficulty. 2/
Taiwan is valuable, but we could have an anti-hegemonic coalition of Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, Philippines, et al. This would be tougher to do, but not impossible.
*The key* is to make Taiwan as defensible as possible.
What does that mean? See below from my book. 3/
What are the factors?
A) On the one hand, China's awing, historic military buildup. Anyone who follows my work knows how I have catalogued this.
*The key* is that buildup has gone on for years. It has resulted in a very, very strong PLA.
So the threat is growing far worse. 4/
On the defensive side, we have two main levers (along with allied contributions from Japan, Australia, et al):
1) Greater U.S. resources/effort/focus on the Taiwan defense problem.
2) Greater effort by Taiwan in its own defense.
How are we doing on these?
Not well. 
5/
5/On 1), it's very clear the U.S. is not prioritizing Asia nor are we materially increasing defense spending. The article itself points to @U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's unfunded priorities list. Even that is no doubt a low ball, given Pentagon politics, etc. Our defense industry is in bad shape. 6/
So what's the other lever? 2) Taiwan's own efforts to defend itself.
Why are Taiwan's efforts so important?
People usually focus on fairness and inspiration. These are important. Americans need to see that Taiwan is invested in its defense to be motivated to help defend it. 7/
But even more important is the simple, practical fact that Taiwan's own armed forces would play an essential, central role in the island's defense. Taiwan cannot defend itself; it needs American intervention to survive against the mighty PLA.
But a very stout defense...8/
would make Taiwan more defensible and thus *reduce the costs in lives and resources to Americans, as well as the costs to our military power*.
Increased Taiwan investment, in other words, saves American lives.
A stout Taiwan is easier and cheaper for Americans to defend. 9/
By contrast, if Taiwan does not prepare a stout defense *it means more Americans will die, more military capabilities will be lost or damaged, and our military will be hobbled.* 10/
At a certain point, and this is absolutely key, defending Taiwan will become more costly and risky than it is worth for us.
At some point, we will lose more people, spend more money and forces, and hurt our military so much that it is simply not worth a free Taiwan. 11/
In the abstract, this is just common sense. Obviously there comes a point at which it's not worth defending distant allies. No one can seriously dispute that.
The question is: Are we there or approach it?
The answer: We are approaching that point. 12/
How do we know?
Well, we can't know for sure.
But credible sources are saying we have lost our military advantage and are actually headed for defeat under our current course.
Moreover, consult your lyin' eyes on the lopsided military trends. 13/
x.com/austinjdahmer/
Austin Dahmer@austinjdahmer
Jul 29 23
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@RAND team led by the superb David Ochmanek out with an indictment of US defense strategy and force planning.
“US defense strategy and posture have become insolvent.”
Thread 1/
rand.org/pubs/research_
China now has a larger navy than the U.S. It is on track to have a larger air force.
It has several hundred times our shipbuilding capacity, which just built a 42,000 amphibious vessel in record time.
It doubled its already huge missile inventory between 2021 and 2024. 14/
Et cetera.
And it's *actually* preparing for war. Don't take it from me 
.
It's trying to sanction-proof its economy despite economic headwinds. It's stockpiling key goods. It's politically conditioning the population. Et cetera. 15/
thehill.com/policy/defense
.
It's trying to sanction-proof its economy despite economic headwinds. It's stockpiling key goods. It's politically conditioning the population. Et cetera. 15/
thehill.com/policy/defenseMeantime, as anyone who has followed me knows, our defense industry has weakened dramatically and our military's readiness is at historic lows.
The recent NDS Commission, which I disagree with on many points, warned about the poor state of our readiness vis a vis Chin. 16/
Alright, so then how much is Taiwan doing>
Very, very little relative to the threat.
Do you know what Taiwan's GDP level of defense spending is? 2.5%, according to the op-ed.
2.5%!!!
That's far less than we far more secure Americans spend. It's less than South Korea does. 17/
2.5% is woefully, obviously, and indisputably inadequate given the scale of the threat Taiwan faces, especially given we are not focusing our military on Asia. Just consider: An island of ~24 million is directly and unabashedly menaced by its neighbor, which is the world's...18/
largest country, largest industrial power, that has embarked on what officials call an historic military buildup - laser-focused on taking over Taiwan. In fact Beijing avowedly retains the right to use force to do so. In what universe is 2.5% sufficient? Poland spends 5%! 19/
Now, if this were just about Taiwan, if we were going to support it but not intervene, then maybe we could just let it sit. But Americans lives - not to mention prosperity and security - are on the line. FOR REAL. An unprepared Taiwan means more dead Americans. 20/
So what do we do about that? If you have a friend who cancer, do you tell him not to worry? That's not a good friend. Or if has a gambling problem and thinks you're going to bail him out - do you let him think that? No, of course not. You get real. You tell them the truth. 21/
What have I been doing? For years, I have been warning the Taiwanese about this - that they must prepare to make it worthwhile for Americans. I'll paste examples below but here is an early one, from 2019. Earlier on, I was direct but less pointed. 22/
taipeitimes.com/News/editorial
My strategy has been that honesty is the best strategy with our Taiwanese partners. There has been too much reassurance, leading Taiwan to reckon that its chestnuts will be pulled out of the fire no matter what by America. Plenty of Americans go to Taiwan and say so. 23/
This is easy talk, but my clear sense both from polling and from just talking about this issue with Americans of all stripes - including ostensible prominent hawks - is that the support for making war with China over Taiwan is a lot thinner than people tell hosts in Taipei. 24/
Americans' support for Taiwan is much more conditional than blanket reassurance indicates. Americans may be prepared to support a defense of Taiwan, but it has to make sense. And the best thing for that is Taiwan doing more for its own defense. 25/
taiwannews.com.tw/news/5917181
This is the message I have delivered to Taiwan, including directly to the President. It wasn't comfortable or reassuring, but it was what needed to be said - for Americans first and foremost, but also to Taiwan if it wants to survive. 26/
x.com/ElbridgeColby/
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Apr 11 24
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It has been an exceptional privilege to visit Taiwan and meet with leaders from across the spectrum.
My message here is the same: Taiwan is key but the situation is dire. Taiwan must show its grave determination to defend itself to persuade Americans to come to its defense. 1/
Let's contrast with the approach offered by
@Mark Montgomery
@Brad Bowman. I'll deal with their points in turn. They say "Taiwan’s defense spending is far from “laggardly.'" This is objectively untrue in the face of the threat they face. Their comparison to other...27/
democracies is both incorrect and misleading. Poland spends twice as much as part of its GDP and faces much less threatening Russia. Taiwan is not competing against other democracies. It is competing against China. And by that standard it is manifestly under-spending. 28/
They then argue tougher messages should be delivered "in private." How has that been working? Very poorly. Real messages have to be "costly," imposing real pressure. Private messages can be ignored, especially when contradicted by public ones of blanket reassurance. 29/
Their argument that even if Taiwan spent more it would need U.S. help misses the point. The whole point is to make U.S. direct defense of Taiwan a viable, feasible proposition. 30/
taipeitimes.com/News/editorial
The authors then list a long serious of good recommendations that Taiwan and America should pursue - without reckoning with the fact that they aren't happening. That's the whole point. Those things haven't happened and time is incredibly short. 31/
asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks
I laid out the key divide here in
@TIME.
The same people who've been arguing we've been underspending and China is a huge threat are also arguing... Taiwan can prudently spend 2.5% of GDP? Huh? How does that even make sense? 32/
time.com/6696552/u-s-ha
Let me also address the authors' charge that I am changing my position to "curry favor." I really try not to get into personal exchanges, but this is beneath them, @FDD, and @Wall Street Journal Opinion. My record on this is abundantly clear, and my position is clearly explained by it. 33/
A cursory examination here on @X, in interviews, and in my written work makes translucently clear that I have: 1) Always argued our interest in Taiwan is very important but conditional 2) The situation is deteriorating, grave, and urgent. 34/
x.com/ElbridgeColby/
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Aug 03 22
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The issue is that Taiwan is a very important but not genuinely existential interest. It's something we should do, but it's not worth fighting to the last man. So we should act to avoid that choice. We can do so by having a military that can defend Taiwan at a tolerable cost. 12/
I also do not see why they suggested I'd presume to speak for @Donald J. Trump or @JD Vance. While I strongly support their election, I have ad nauseam made clear I do not speak for them or the campaign, nor do I presume any kind of role in the future. 35/
x.com/ElbridgeColby/
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Apr 24 24
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Just a note that I tell basically every journalist, official, and expert, US or foreign, that I only speak for myself and emphasize I do not speak for anybody else. I can’t control what they say or write about me, but I do make clear that I never claim to speak for anyone else.
What motivates me? I'm not a saint nor free of ambition, to be sure. But I am a "loud voice" and leaving it all on the field trying to push our country and our allies to get real precisely in order to avoid war and to prevail in it if it comes. 36/
x.com/ElbridgeColby/
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Mar 17 24
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Whichever candidate wins will be President in 2027.
No one knows what Beijing will do. But they are - indisputably - seriously preparing for war.
America is at great risk of losing a great power war for the first time, with enormous consequences. 1/
amp.scmp.com/news/china/art
I am deeply, deeply worried about a war with China. I want to avoid it from a position of strength and on reasonable grounds. That's what I'm about. Interpret my actions through that lens and I'm confident you'll see the through line of my arguments. 37/
americancompass.org/only-one-prior
Closing thought: I can't complain. If you're taking flak, you're over the argument. This op-ed reminds me of that scene from The Campaign. I guess all's fair in love, war...and foreign policy. 38/
youtube.com/watch?v=4roJq6
from The Campaign. I guess all's fair in love, war...and foreign policy. 38/
youtube.com/watch?v=4roJq6Here are some other places where I made clear that our interest in Taiwan is conditional and/or that the situation was/is becoming much more grave and urgent. 39/
globaltaiwan.org/podcasts/taiwa
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Oct 14 22
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Yes, Taiwan is really important but it's not an existential interest for America. If we fail and get crushed, it won't be worth it.
Thus it's *vital* for Taiwan and America to ensure that a US defense of the island is a net benefit for America. Now we're pushing the limits.
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Mar 06 23
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Correct. Taiwan is a key but not existential interest for the United States. It's therefore a matter of cost and benefit.
The key for America and Taiwan is to drive the costs of defending Taiwan down. America should focus its military on Asia. Taiwan should implement real ODC.
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Jan 01 24
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I think this issue will only become more pointed in 2024. Here’s why Taiwan is a very important, albeit not existential, interest for America.
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Feb 05 24
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America is a republic, not a charity operation. Allies need to make sure defending them is in the concrete interests of Americans.
Taiwan is more important to Americans than Ukraine, but it's not existential. Solid base for collaboration, but Taiwan needs to do its part. 2/
Elbridge Colby@ElbridgeColby
Aug 16 24
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Taiwan is very valuable, but it's not existential for America. As I've said for many years, consider it like a 70 value out of 100. It's therefore *essential* that the costs and risks of defending it be below that 70. We can't afford to squander our military in a losing fight. 1/
Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
Principal, Marathon Initiative. Former Pentagon, 2018 National Defense Strategy, inter alia. Author of Strategy of Denial. Views my own.
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