Egypt is reportedly sending 10,000 troops to Somalia. Things could escalate quickly in the Horn of Africa. Here’s everything you need to know 1/

To understand this move clearly, we need to consider the longstanding tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. 2/

Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odd since ~2011, when Addis Ababa began building a vast hydro dam on the headwaters of the Nile River. Egypt had claimed that this dam is a threat to its water supply as it disturbs waterflow. 3/

For Egypt, the Nile is the source of nearly all of its fresh water. It especially needs it for agriculture. The Nile is also used to fill Lake Nasser, the reservoir for Egypt's own hydro-electric power plant, the Aswan High Dam. 4/

Multiple rounds of negotiations have tried to resolve this issue, including a U.S.-brokered effort in 2019, but with little success. 5/

Now, turning to Somalia... 6/

Earlier this year, Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland to lease coastal land in exchange for possible recognition of its independence from Somalia. The Mogadishu government in Somalia called the deal an assault on its sovereignty. 7/

As a result, Egypt and Somalia have drawn closer. In fact, the two countries signed a security pact earlier this month. After, Egypt offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia. 8/

On Tuesday morning, two Egyptian military planes filled with weapons and ammo landed at Mogadishu airport. 9/

This delivery is said to be part of the deployment of 10,000 Egyptian troops. 10/

Ethiopia's Minister of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on August 28 warning that “{A}ll responsible for preparing and authorizing a new peace support mission must take into account the legitimate concerns of countries of the regions and the TCCs.” 11/

The statement goes on to call Egypt out, “Forces trying to inflame tensions for their short-term and futile objectives must shoulder the grave ramifications.” 12/

It’s too early to call things, but this is something worth watching. Egypt seems to be seeking alternative methods to solving the Ethiopia dam dispute, and this opportunity could be it. 13/

Ill add that this move was well received by the Egyptian public. I am scrolling through dozens of tweets expressing their excitement over Egypt's power projection. 14/

More to come as the situation develops… 15/15