Lots of takes on new Trump tariffs. Here's a quick general equilibrium analysis.
Grabbed off-the-self quantitative trade model calibrated to '22 global trade flows.
Fed in 25% MEX, 25% CAN, and 10% PRC tariffs across sectors. What happens to U.S. consumer prices? 1/3
Model solves for new U.S. consumer prices for all products. Here are products with US price increases >2%, up to 13%. Lots of industrial inputs & food products, unsurprisingly given CAN/MEX/PRC imports. 2/3
Details:
-Multisector Armington model with linear production and fixed sectoral expenditures shares based on @Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) PhD lecture notes.
-2022 global trade matrices from Comrade, processed in Exiobase 3.0, ~200 products.
-Trade elasticities: Ossa (JIE 2015). 3/3
Kyle Meng
@kyle_c_meng
Associate prof @brenucsb @EconomicsUcsb. Climate & Energy Director @emLabUCSB. Fmr Senior Climate Economist @WhiteHouseCEA
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