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Mark Dubowitz

Mark Dubowitz
@mdubowitz

Apr 15
19 tweets
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Thread 🧵 on Iran nuclear ☢️ negotiations 1/ We most avoid a nuclear deal that looks like a rebranded version of the 2015 Obama disaster—the same one Trump rightly torched in 2018 as “the worst deal ever negotiated.”

2/ The new trap? Let Iran keep enriching uranium—just like under Obama. But that was the fatal flaw of the original deal. Enrichment = nuclear blackmail. Always has, always will.
3/ The 2015 deal handed Iran a legitimized nuclear program + up to $1 trillion in sanctions relief. The restrictions? Set to expire just five years from now. A ticking bomb.
4/ Some now claim Iran’s nuclear sprint began when Trump exited the deal in 2018. False. Iran hesitated—until Biden took office, ditched maximum pressure, and begged Tehran to negotiate
5/ Iran saw weakness and escalated. The results: — October 7 — Missiles fired at U.S. ships in the Red Sea — A surge in enrichment, terror, and defiance and beginnings of weaponization
6/ The irony? Iran is far weaker today than in 2015. — Israel has shattered its air defenses — Crippled missile production — Hammered Hezbollah & Hamas — Assad’s Syria is no longer a reliable land bridge to Lebanon
7/ Instead of using this leverage to finish the job, Trump’s lead negotiator backed off and conceded enrichment—then only revived “dismantlement” language only after Republicans pushed back hard.
8/ Sen. Lindsey Graham is leading the charge, demanding full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. He’s not freelancing—he’s echoing Trump’s 2018 and 2025 clarity.
9/ Trump has said: “There’s two ways of stopping them. With bombs, or with a written piece of paper.” He later added: “Inspect it—and then blow it up or make sure there are no more nuclear facilities.
10/ Trump’s current national security team—@Mike Waltz and @Pete Hegseth—are clear: the only acceptable deal is one that dismantles all of Iran’s enrichment, weaponization, and missile programs.
11/ it is a big mistake to abandon full dismantlement, pushing a narrow focus on “weaponization”—as if Iran can be trusted to enrich uranium but not build a bomb.
12/ That’s a fantasy. With enough enriched uranium, Iran can build a warhead in a hidden lab—the size of a classroom—in a country 2.5x the size of Texas.
13/ Will Khamenei ever allow “anytime, anywhere” access for IAEA inspectors—including Americans—to his military sites, scientists, and weapons program?
14/ Of course not. Which makes a deal focused on “weaponization” worthless. Iran keeps the bomb-making material, we get a piece of worthless paper.
15/ Worst of all? A possible “freeze-for-freeze” deal. Iran halts 60% enrichment—but keeps growing its 3.67% and 20% stockpiles, which are 70–90% of the way to weapons-grade.
16/ That’s not diplomacy. That’s regime deception. A tactical pause while they rebuild their missile stockpiles with help from China and Russia and rebuild their terror proxies with cash.
17/ So here’s the real test: Will President Trump sign off on a deal that looks like Obama’s? And will congressional Republicans—who opposed the JCPOA in 2015—back it now because it carries a Trump label?
18/ This is the moment to finish the job—not fall back into Obama 2.0. No enrichment. No bomb. No illusions.
19/ There’s no deal that ends Iran’s nuclear threat without a credible military option. Signaling—especially in the NYT—that it’s off the table even temporarily is a gift to Tehran. The regime won’t compromise unless it fears for its survival.
Mark Dubowitz

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz
CEO @FDD. Sanctioned by Iran and Russia. Annoyingly nonpartisan. Host of The Iran Breakdown. “A micro-niche celebrity but not your niche.”
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