BREAKING: India just signed a £25.5 BILLION trade deal with the UK. Jobs will shift. Visas will open. Carbon taxes might explode. But nobody’s telling you the real winners + losers of this FTA. Here’s what’s REALLY inside the deal

1. Landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA) On May 6, 2025, India & UK signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA) after 3+ years of back-and-forth. Leaders call it “historic.” But the fine print tells a different story. Let’s decode the £25.5B deal that will reshape jobs, exports, and geopolitics

2. What’s inside the deal? Think of it as a mega-economic handshake: £25.5B projected trade boost by 2040 UK GDP: +£4.8B/year Indian exports: 99% duty-free access Big wins for cars, whisky, textiles Big questions on carbon taxes & standards

3. UK exporters win big: India will cut 90% of tariffs. Whisky tariffs? From 150% → 75% immediately Down to 40% in 10 years Projected +£1B whisky export surge, 1,200 new jobs. Car tariffs drop from 100%+ → 10% under quotas.

4. Indian exporters celebrate: 99% of goods get duty-free access Textiles, marine, footwear, gems, toys all included Goal: Double India–UK trade to $120B by 2030 But there's a twist

5. The carbon tax elephant: UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) still applies. No exemption for Indian steel. Translation: India’s carbon-intensive exporters (steel, cement, aluminium) are exposed to future tariffs.

6. Social security clause = flashpoint Indian workers in UK get 3-year exemption from double social contributions. Calls it a “massive win.” Conservatives call it a “two-tier tax system.” Mobility for 1,800 Indian chefs, musicians & yogis also included.

7. Who Wins What

8. UK Farmers are NOT happy. The National Farmers' Union fears being undercut by Indian produce that “doesn’t match UK standards.” Sound familiar? Same fear during the UK-Australia FTA. Local pressure could stall implementation.

9. India’s alcohol sector also stressed Why? This deal opens the door for cheaper UK spirits. But future EU/US deals might hit them harder. Small distillers are already calling for protection.

10. Why does this deal matter? Because trade is no longer just about tariffs. This FTA covers: Anti-corruption Labor rights Gender & development Consumer protections Cultural cooperation A blueprint for “values-based trade.”

11. Timeline drama: 2022: Talks begin 2022–2025: 4 UK PMs, 2 Indian state elections Apr 2025: 90% done May 6, 2025: Deal signed Now: Awaits UK Parliament approval + separate investment treaty

12. Timeline graphic of the negotiation journey

13. But wait - who really benefits? According to the UK Government: +£4.8B GDP +£2.2B in wages Indian data? Less specific. Most benefits hinge on implementation, not just signing.

14. India’s "living bridge" factor 1.9M+ Indian-origin citizens live in the UK. The FTA strengthens diaspora-driven collaboration in tech, fintech, pharma, and arts. Think soft power → hard economic impact.

15. Will the India–UK FTA actually help workers?

16. This isn’t just about two nations. The FTA signals a new global trade strategy, bypassing China's dependence, navigating US tariffs, and reshaping post-Brexit Britain. Watch for ripple effects across G20 and WTO policy in 2025–26.

Save this thread for your next policy debate Comment: Who do you think benefits more, India or UK? Share this if you care about trade, jobs & geopolitics Tag a friend who watches international news Follow @CA Vivek Khatri for deep-dive threads that decode complex policy

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