May as well do a proper thread on this. Read for my analysis/cope.

First up is Kavanaugh, in a statement respecting the denial of cert. (Basically a concurrence in denying it) Not that it will matter until SCOTUS actually polices the antigun circuits, but Kavanaugh confirms we are right that: a. there is a "common use" test. Antigun states have denied this, arguing there is no such test, or if there is, it's only "commonly used for self-defense." b. it is historically-based (i.e., not part of the phony "plain text" analysis). Antigun states have argued it's at the plain text step.

Not strong enough to get granted cert now though, I guess?

Sure, but the antigun circuits will absolutely take this as an affirmance of the terrible Fourth Circuit ruling. SCOTUS needs to accept that it must actively police those circuits, or just admit it has no interest in protecting the Second Amendment so we stop wasting our time.

While they didn't join this statement, this is Barrett and Roberts speaking too, it's pretty clear. Kavanaugh wouldn't write with such confidence (i.e. "presumably") if he didn't think they - or at least one of them - was on board to hear such a case soon. You are free to think I am coping - I can't blame you for having zero confidence in the Court after this. It's just how I read it. Even if I am correct, that wouldn't make it okay. Another year or two of denied rights is incredibly damaging. As I have pointed out before, our lives are not that long, and not having our Second Amendment right fully realized for another year or two is a real loss. Moreover, there is absolutely nothing to be gained from percolation. Only antigun circuits ever here AWB cases, and their rulings are all very similar to each other.

We love you Justice Thomas, thanks for always being a real one.

I don't like Justice Thomas embracing the plain text "step." I guess I now have to concede there is such a step, bummer.

That said, the plain text is not hard to meet in an arms ban case, as Thomas points out.

Now that Thomas has confirmed I was wrong and there is a "plain text" step, I now urge the Supreme Court to gut it and make Bruen the one-step test it should be. Antigun circuits will always place "too high a burden" on Plaintiffs to avoid the historical analysis. The plain text step, if it is too exist, should be no more than a simple qualifier, not some rigorous analysis.

to* exist.

So while Thomas does reject my view that there is no meaningful plain text step, he does agree that it isn't a hard step to meet.

Beautifully written. Too bad it is in a dissent from denial of cert, and not the first line of a per curiam ruling.

Thomas deals with the 4th Circuits dumb slippery slope argument.

Thomas agrees that percolation has no value.

He concludes by pointing out the Court's logic in VanDerStok could allow for the federal government to declare AR-15s to be "machineguns" and ban them. A future Dem administration will no doubt try this.

So, what's my speculation? I think there was clearly a lot of negotiating behind the scenes, and Roberts/Barrett or one of them just doesn't want another controversial issue on their plate right now. They promised Kavanaugh they'd take up the issue soon, but who knows if they will keep that promise (no doubt the stream of Trump admin cases will continue for the whole four years). Hopefully the USDOJ will support the Duncan cert petition to add some pressure for a grant. If they deny Duncan, then the next best candidate is probably the Illinois cases about to be heard on final judgment by the Seventh Circuit. It is interesting that Kavanaugh had no similar statement for Ocean State Tactical. As a judge on the DC Circuit, he dissented from an opinion (Heller II) upholding an AWB, but said as to magazines he would have remanded for further proceedings. It's possible Kavanaugh is against AWBs, but would be accepting of a magazine capacity limit. I certainly hope that isn't the case. I can't blame anyone for dooming at this point, but we'll keep doing the best we can. We need Justices Thomas and Alito replaced by fire-breathers like VanDyke who don't care about suffocating decorum traditions and will openly call out their colleagues when they are being hacks. Thomas and Alito are the best justices on the Court, but they are aging and it is critical they be replaced with equally-strong but younger judges.

Finally, the percolation excuse must be especially frustrating for the Snope plaintiffs. Let's say in a best case scenario, Kavanaugh is being truthful, and SCOTUS does grant a similar case and strikes down AWBs. The Snope plaintiffs are still out all of their legal fees, which do not get reimbursed if you are vindicated two years later. You only win back fees if your case wins. So they are just SOL. Very cool SCOTUS, thanks.