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Tara Moriarty

Tara Moriarty
@MoriartyLab

Jul 4, 2025
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Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 CANADA MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 120 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher

This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.8 About 1 of every 120 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 230,675-301,825 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 5.1X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.1X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.4X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici : x.com/MoriartyLab/st
Tara Moriarty

Tara Moriarty
@MoriartyLab

Jul 04 25
View on Twitter
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : JUN 28-JUL 11, 2025 CANADA MODÉRÉ (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 120 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~5X 🔺 -COVID longue ~7X 🔺 -Hospitalisations ~5X 🔺 -Décès ~4X 🔺
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 118 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~4X higher -Long COVID ~6X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.3 About 1 of every 118 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,050-3,975 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.8X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 120 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~6X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Prince Edward Island's COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.4 About 1 of every 120 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,000-1,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.5X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.8X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months. WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 NOVA SCOTIA MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 110 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.5 About 1 of every 110 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 6,500-8,515 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.7X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.0X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 NEW BRUNSWICK MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 133 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~4X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. New Brunswick’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.2 About 1 of every 133 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 4,275-5,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.1X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.9X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 3.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 QUÉBEC MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 115 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~5X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.8 About 1 of every 115 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 52,350-68,500 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 5.2X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.1X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.5X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 ONTARIO HIGH (no change) About 1 in every 118 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~6X higher -Deaths ~5X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 5.2 About 1 of every 118 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 90,950-119,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 5.4X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.5X higher HDeaths: MODERATE; 4.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE ospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.5X higher vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 MANITOBA MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 136 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~4X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Manitoba’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.2 About 1 of every 136 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 7,300-9,550 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.0X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 7.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 5.0X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 3.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 SASKATCHEWAN MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 128 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~4X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.3 About 1 of every 128 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 6,700-8,850 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.2X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 5.0X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 3.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 ALBERTA MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 128 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~6X higher -Deaths ~5X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Alberta’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 5.0 About 1 of every 128 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 25,650-33,575 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 5.1X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.5X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.6X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 BRITISH COLUMBIA MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 121 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~6X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. British Columbia’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.4 About 1 in every 121 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 32,150-42,075 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.7X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.7X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON MODERATE (no change) About 1 in every 129 people infected Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~5X higher -Long COVID ~7X higher -Hospitalizations ~5X higher -Deaths ~4X higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nunavut, NWT, & Yukon’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.5 About 1 of every 129 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 685-900 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.7X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 6.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 5.0X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months The COVID Index is available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
The national overview for the Canadian COVID forecast can be found here: x.com/MoriartyLab/st
Tara Moriarty

Tara Moriarty
@MoriartyLab

Jul 04 25
View on Twitter
Canadian COVID Forecast: Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025 SEVERE: none VERY HIGH: none HIGH: ON MODERATE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, PEI, QC, SK About 1 in 120 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Jun 28-Jul, 2025 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 4.8 - MODERATE Alberta: 5.0 - MODERATE British Columbia: 4.4 - MODERATE Manitoba: 4.2 - MODERATE New Brunswick: 4.2 - Bloody Hell Newfoundland and Labrador: 4.3 - MODERATE North: 4.5 - MODERATE Nova Scotia: 4.5 - MODERATE Ontario: 5.2 - HIGH Prince Edward Island: 4.4 - MODERATE Quebec: 4.8 - MODERATE Saskatchewan: 4.3 - MODERATE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here: x.com/MoriartyLab/st
Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends. The next forecast will be August 11th, 2025.
Thanks to @Pam Gaines #nosuchthingasmildcovid @CircaLiz @Brittany @Jeweljam_ILF @Ryan and @allenescott for data input, graphics, and translation. Thanks to the whole COVID-19 Resources Canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan
Tara Moriarty

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab
🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofT. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. @COVID_19_Canada. Defend journalism. Opinions mine. @MoriartyLab.bsky.social
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