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Convequity

Convequity
@convequity

Sep 4, 2025
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Will $META become a $10T company — and possibly the most valuable in the world — by 2035? Let’s explore how this could play out. 🧵

The bull case. Zuck’s ASI lab supercharges Llama + Meta AI, closing the gap with frontier models. This unlocks Conversational AI Ads Targeting (CAAT). Think: you’re training for a half marathon → ask Meta AI for advice → it suggests the right trainers + app with links — seamlessly, in-chat.
Executed right (timely, natural, non-salesy), CAAT could step-change ROAS. More effective ads → more spend → more revenue/profits. Zuck hasn’t even talked about this yet, which makes it incredibly alpha-rich.
To make CAAT real, Meta’s ad engines would need a revamp: • Ad inventory shifts from static slots → dynamic, real-time conversational contexts • Bidding evolves to optimize for intent + timing within dialogue, not just impressions/clicks Meta already uses “estimated action rates” & Advantage+ to infer intent, but there’s no system today that inserts ads dynamically inside conversations. CAAT would be a whole new ads marketplace.
Meta AI upgrades also improve the B2C experience across WhatsApp + Messenger. And with 3bn users, Meta has a massive distribution edge in cracking the next hardware form factor. The Ray-Ban glasses aren’t there yet — but pair them with neural wristband controls? Mainstream potential.
The metaverse? Many dismiss it, but most transformative tech goes through hype cycles. Meta prototypes show 180° FOV and 90 PPD — making major progress toward fully immersive VR. Once UX is seamless, the lever will be distribution + affordability.
AI + Metaverse together = limitless imagination space. If the digital economy is $10–15T, the metaverse could add $5–10T. As the enabler, Meta could capture 5–10% of that in revenue.
Meta has multiple S-curves: 1️⃣ Better ads ML/AI 2️⃣ CAAT 3️⃣ Glasses + neural controls = new hardware paradigm 4️⃣ Metaverse optionality: monetizing Llama for devs, value-add services
The bear case. None of the above materializes. Growth sinks to ~3%. Apply Gordon’s Growth Model: $178B TTM revenue × 35% FCF margin × (1+3%) / (8%–3%) = $1.3T intrinsic value. That’s ~30% below today’s market cap.
Asymmetric setup: Downside ~30%. Upside could be 5x → $10T. Rough math: • 1bn glasses @ $800 = $800B • 10% metaverse share = $750B • $500B ads rev → $2T revenues × 5x P/S = $10T.
Is this feasible? Could $META really become the world’s most valuable company by 2035? Curious to hear your thoughts. And if you want deeper dives into Meta, visit our website (see bio).
Convequity

Convequity

@convequity
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