The Midwest presently has the highest levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. Using CDC wastewater surveillance data, we estimate infection prevalence in each state, e.g., 1 in 21 residents in MI and OH actively infectious. Let me walk you through the numbers... 1/9

The CDC has #Illinois with Very High COVlD levels, including in the #Chicago area. By linking wastewater surveillance data with IHME true case estimates, we project 1 in 27 residents are actively infectious. That's a 61% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people. 2/9

Data are quite limited in #Missouri, but the one CDC site reporting indicates Very High COVlD levels, consistent with adjacent states. We estimate roughly 1 in 22 people are actively infectious, meaning a 68% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people. 3/9

In #Michigan, COVlD levels are Very High, per the CDC. We estimate 1 in 21 people are actively infectious. This translates into a 70% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people of typical infection risk. 4/9

Likewise, the CDC reports COVlD levels are Very High in #Ohio, which has excellent surveillance. We estimate 1 in 21 people actively infectious, or a 70% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people. 5/9

#Indiana has Very High COVlD levels, per the CDC. We estimate 1 in 15 residents are actively infectious. In a room of 25 people of average infection risk, that's an 83% chance of an exposure. 6/9

The CDC has #WestVirginia with Very High COVlD levels. The data are quite limited. If the reporting site is generalizable, 1 in 14 residents would be actively infectious. Neighboring states are more like 1 in 20 to 1 in 60 actively infectious. 7/9

Transmission is also surging across the Northeast. 8/9 https://x.com/michael_hoerger/status/2010247292926804178…

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

Jan 11

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BREAKING: COVlD Surge in the Northeast Intensifies The CDC indicates 7 states have High or Very High levels. We use harmonized wastewater surveillance data to estimate the prevalence of how many people are actively infectious by state. Let me highlight a few examples... 1/7

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You can find more detailed data on our website (http://pmc19.com/data) and in the following thread. We update weekly, typically on Mondays. 9/9 https://x.com/michael_hoerger/status/2010093772680638656…

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger

Jan 10

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The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in. We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious. WV: 1 in 14 IN: 1 in 15 MI & OH: 1 in 21 MO: 1 in 22 CT: 1 in 24 KS: 1 in 25 MA & IL: 1 in 27 Quick 1/4

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