Three historical lessons about bombing campaigns and regime change:

Lesson 1: Air power rarely produces friendly regime change. Since WWI, dozens of bombing campaigns have tried to coerce governments from the air. None installed leaders more cooperative with the attacker. Bombing can destroy targets. It does not reliably reshape politics.

Lesson 2: External attack fuses regime & nation. Bombing changes a country’s politics. Even people who dislike their leaders don’t want to align with a foreign attacker. If Iran assassinated Trump, would Democrats thank Tehran? Or close ranks?

Lesson 3: Retaliation is often delayed & asymmetric. States and groups rarely respond on the attacker’s timeline. Responses may come months or years later — through proxies, terrorism, cyber, or regional escalation. Immediate calm does not mean long-term stability.