Judge Only Trials The law of unintended () consequences. An old-fashioned long thread. And a prediction.

Hello. Welcome to my theory about judge-alone trials. This isn’t a conspiracy theory. I’m not mad. Promise. It is what I consider to be the likely practical impact of the legislation being proposed. And I don’t like it. I don’t think you, or your MP, will like it, either.

We are about to go on a journey together. I want you to imagine you are accused of a burglary. (Just pretend, I know you’re not naughty). And pretend you are not guilty and you want a trial. Burglary is an either-way offence. We will start our journey before the Magistrates.

Thanks to the government’s bill (which in this scenario is, incredibly, a piece of legislation passed by actual legislators) the Magistrates now have sentencing powers of, say, 18 months imprisonment. They need to (amongst other things) decide if they can ‘keep’ you.

They ask themselves the question - are our powers (say 18 months) adequate here? Now. Pause there. This is an imprecise science. They don’t know the sentence. They know the basic information & do their best using experience, guidelines, submissions & a legal advisor.

Magistrates sometimes ‘keep’ cases when the sentence, as it turns out later, is *more* than their powers allow. After the trial, or plea, when this is realised or becomes apparent they can ‘commit’ that case for sentence to the Crown Court anyway. There are thousands of these.

They are unlikely to get it spectacularly wrong. So let’s say burglaries with a margin of error of, say, 18-24 months are at risk of that. Because it’s hard to know the exact sentence before the evidence is heard. Let’s call those cases the ‘margin of error’ cases.

So ALL of those guys are staying put - the ‘under 18 month’ guys (or gals) & the ‘margin of error’ lot. Their current right to elect a jury has now been removed. But you, my friend, are a bad burglar, so they are sure you’re over 18 months. So off you go. To the Crown Court.

Welcome to the Crown Court! Watch out for the leaking roof, the vermin, and the depressed legal professionals with dead eyes wandering out of ‘Bench Court’. They’ll be ok. They’re all quitting soon. Don’t worry about them. Here comes His Honour Judge Lovely! All stand please.

Now. HHJ Lovely needs to decide if you are having your burglary trial in the new ‘Bench/Swift/Disaster’ (sorry) Division of the Crown Court or if you can have a jury trial. Off we go again guessing what your sentence might be.

Remember all of this was supposed to save court time. That noise you can hear are the barristers crying.

So HHJ Lovely now has to decide if your case is likely to be worth less than 3 years (36 months) in prison.

Now, HHJ Lovely might look a bit tired and less happy than he used to. No, he’s not crying and that’s not a ‘countdown to retirement’ on his calendar. He’s fine. Absolutely fine.

The new law means he’s been deciding leave to appeal applications by litigants in person from the Magistrates’ Court & also writing reasons for why he is acquitting someone of sexual assault - he’s keen to do a good job as the online mob might put his photo on social media again.

Anyway. He’s fine. He’s trying his best with this new job under this new law. Back to you. He has to decide if your burglary is worth more than 36 months (jury trial) or less (judge only). But he might get it a bit wrong too - he’s not a clairvoyant & it’s an early stage.

So here, we will have margin of error cases too. Let’s say a margin of 6 months again - so cases that will actually be worth 30 months might get a jury trial anyway.

Are you seeing the issue yet? This measure is likely to reliably catch the cases that solidly land at the 24-30 month prediction. And less reliably catch those at the 18-36 month position. And might catch a few outliers. This will be a small slice of cases.

It will, of course, catch many more in the backlog. Thousands of them forced before a judge alone in slow, diary-chaotic, miserable years of re-jigging. But once that is done- what is left? Well. What’s left, my friend, are whole swathes of people being forced to have trials in the lower court without juries.

I used 18 months as the example because I’m being generous. The new law actually seems to say Magistrates’ powers could be extended to 24 months. That’s a TWO YEAR PRISON SENTENCE without a jury, decided by Magistrates (with the help of a legal advisor) or a District Judge sitting alone.

Whether it’s deliberate () or not - *this* is where it lands after the ‘backlog’ years. I think Magistrates are community-minded & valued people volunteering their time, building experience & assisted by a legal advisor. But 18-24 months imprisonment is a long time, isn’t it?

And, in a legislative pincer () movement, the government are removing the automatic right to appeal from the Magistrates’ Court AT THE SAME TIME. Remember HHJ Lovely being a bit tired deciding leave to appeal? Those.

EXAMPLE. This is the sentencing guideline (not tramline) for sexual assault. The only case firmly getting a jury here is a 1A sp case. EVERYONE else is in the Magistrates if their powers are 24months. Except a 1B sp case. But he has to avoid margins of error to get a judge trial.

Over and over again we will see this with either way cases, once the backlog is gone. The very worst few cases will get a jury. The vast majority will be forced to stay in the Magistrates. And a smaller slice who are over 18/24months *but under* 36months (AND avoiding margins of error) will get a judge.

So. Slow backlog clearance with chaotic listings & cases being reallocated. People who chose juries cruelly stripped of that choice even if they’ve waited months or years. But then. Something worse. *Summary* justice for *serious* crimes. With no automatic right of appeal.

The Magistrates’ Court has a backlog of c350,000 cases already. In 2025, 81% of Magistrates in post were aged 50+. They do not need to be (and are often not) legally qualified but receive training and have a legal advisor. It has, until now, been for summary justice with comparatively low penalties and an automatic right of appeal. Those were, in my view, vital safeguards for a summary system. But not anymore. They’ll be supercentre courts for faster justice. Deciding burglaries worth 15 months. Sexual assaults worth 18 months. Frauds of £10-£20,000. With a tidal wave backlog of their own. The government say they are beating the backlog. But what if they’re just moving it?