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John Spencer

John Spencer
@SpencerGuard

Mar 29
16 tweets
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What could possibly be the U.S. options in Iran? Most people jump from today to a full-scale ground invasion to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, and destroy a supposed million-man army. That is shallow thinking. đź§µ President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on energy infrastructure strikes (now extended to April 6). We are days into that timeline. The real questions are not just what has been done, but what options remain.

It is given that CENTCOM and Israel will continue systematic attacks on Iran’s military system, its navy, missile forces, and military industrial base. Iran entered this war with thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of launchers, a massive naval complex...destroying Iran means to project power is a vital part of achieving the strategic goals.
Israel is also simultaneously continuing to target the regime’s ability to rule and oppress the population after the bombs stop falling. Hunting and eliminating political and military leadership. Basij units. Checkpoints. Internal security nodes.
Option: Strike the economic center of gravity. Kharg Island handles roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports... Seize it, disable it, or destroy export capacity. That is strategic paralysis. It is important to point out what has already stressed the regime. The January 2026 protests emerged from economic collapse, currency crash, inflation spikes, banking instability, and water shortages affecting millions in Tehran. The regime responded with mass violence, killing over 32,000 civilians. It did not do that because it had a stable grip on its power.
Option: Turn off the lights. Target the national power grid. Tehran and major urban centers go dark. Modern regimes rely on electricity for command and control, communications, and internal security coordination. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages without total destruction of infrastructure. This has been demonstrated in past conflicts.
Option: Turn off the internet for the regime, turn it on for the population. Cyber warfare can selectively disrupt regime communications while enabling access for civilians. Information becomes a weapon. Control of narrative, coordination, and awareness shifts away from the regime.
Option: Control the Strait of Hormuz battlespace. Seize or neutralize key islands. Deny Iran the ability to threaten maritime traffic. Not symbolic. Operational. Experts have long identified Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands as critical terrain controlling access to the Strait. Qeshm Island, sitting along the northern edge, hosts IRGC naval facilities, missile systems, and surveillance infrastructure. These positions enable Iran’s anti-ship missile coverage, fast attack craft operations, and maritime coercion. Controlling or neutralizing these islands would fundamentally alter Iran’s ability to contest the Strait.
Option: Dismantle Iran’s “toll booth” control of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC has created a de facto system where ships must be approved, routed through Iranian-influenced lanes, and in some cases pay millions for safe passage. Reports indicate fees reaching up to $2 million per tanker, selective approval based on political alignment, and designated transit corridors near Larak Island under regime control. The United States and Israel have the capability to systematically dismantle this system. Target the leadership directing it. Destroy the coastal radar, ISR nodes, and command centers enabling it. Eliminate the fast attack craft, drones, and missile batteries enforcing it. Break the system, and you break Iran’s ability to turn a global chokepoint into a regime-controlled revenue and coercion mechanism.
Option: Seize or interdict all Iranian oil exports at sea. Stop and divert tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Enforce a full maritime denial of regime revenue. That oil is the regime’s financial lifeline. Interdiction operations, whether through naval seizure, inspection, or coalition enforcement, could drive that revenue toward zero. This is not theoretical. The U.S. and partners have already seized sanctioned Iranian shipments and enforced maritime security operations in the Gulf. Scaling that effort would turn economic pressure into immediate fiscal collapse. No revenue means no ability to fund missiles, proxies, internal repression, or basic state functions.
Option: Shift the posture toward the population. Until now, civilians have largely been told to shelter in place. That could change. Messaging, movement corridors, and psychological operations could begin to separate the population from the regime and its control mechanisms.
Option: Arm internal resistance. Air resupply weapons, communications equipment, and intelligence support to groups already hostile to the regime. This turns latent opposition into organized resistance inside the regime’s own terrain. Historically risky, but potentially decisive if synchronized with external pressure.
Option: Work with defectors. Exploit regime pressures already creating fractures. Military leaders. Intelligence officials. Political elites. Planning with defectors can create cascading effects far greater than strikes alone. Internal collapse often begins this way.
Options: A whole world of what no one is thinking. We know VERY little about what is truly happening inside of Iran. Where is the regime weak, militarily, economically, politically? Where is it strong and needs attacked? The regime initiated a call to service and dropped the enlistment age to 12. That isn’t something a nation fully handling things does.
Option: Combine all of the above in pursuit of strategic objectives to destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and production capacity, dismantle its navy and its ability to threaten maritime traffic, and end its nuclear program. Deny the regime the ability to project power beyond its borders, whether through missiles, drones, or proxy networks. At the same time, continue to paralyze decision-making at the top. Systematically target leadership, command and control, intelligence nodes, and the systems that enable internal repression. This is about collapsing the regime’s ability to function, not just its ability to fight. Continue destroying the regime’s means across multiple domains at once: military, economic, informational, and political. The objective is to impose multiple, simultaneous dilemmas on the regime, more than it can effectively respond to. Force it into reactive survival rather than coherent strategy. Stretch its decision cycles. Overwhelm its ability to prioritize, coordinate, and control.
War is not a checklist. It is the alignment of ends, ways, and means under conditions of uncertainty. Options can be sequenced, layered, or applied simultaneously across domains. The United States has not run out of options. It has not even used all of them.
Be careful of analysts who speak in certainties or rely on surface analogies. Iran is not Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. It is not 1968, 2002, or 2003. The context of each is fundamentally different. The political objectives, from regime behavior change to regime survival, are different. Past wars involved nation building, attempts to create democracy, prolonged fights against insurgencies, and enemies who enjoyed sanctuary outside the operating environment. Those are not the same conditions or objectives at play here. The geography, technology, intelligence, and regional dynamics are different. The options available today are far broader and more precise against the objectives. We know a lot about what has been struck. We do not fully know what remains. More importantly, we do not know what decisions will be made next, by either side. That uncertainty is not a flaw in analysis. It is the nature of war.
John Spencer

John Spencer

@SpencerGuard
War Scholar | Chair of War Studies Madison Policy Forum | Executive Director @urbanwarfareins | UWP podcast | Thoughts/Posts my own RT/Quote/Like ≠ Official Gov
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