Big day for Alaska. Our open primary will decide top 4 candidates advancing to the general. Expectation setting: 1. AK's midterm primary electorate veeery R-heavy. General is typically ~10-20% bluer. Peltola @ even just 40% minimum = Sullivan is likely in trouble in Nov.

2. Alaskas are fired up and voting. Younger voters = 10% of absentee requests this yr, bluer electorate than usual, and Southeast/Anchorage are banking their votes early. We're already past 2022 early totals. Tracks with national primary trends. https://x.com/cinyc9/status/2089145494186463644?s=20…

3. AK has an interesting way of counting absentee vs early votes. On night 1 around 9AKST, expect: - early votes through last Friday - eday precincts mostly in big towns/cities - *maybe* some absentees As Ds return to early/eday voting, hard to say how later ballots shake out

On Wed, we continue counting early's through the 14th and eday precincts will mostly come from the Bush (alaska native majority) and off road system communities. Then, we likely don't have another drop for 7 days as the state counts absentees/finishes early votes.

If this isn't the general with RCV, why are the stakes so high? - highly competitive gov race (17 candidates) - who makes top 4 has *serious* implications for RCV. Dems have a real chance at a flip

And finally: - whether spoiler candidates boosted by millions in R money squeeze into top 4. Eric Hafner, a new yorker in jail, made top 4 in Peltola's House race in 24 and took a few %. It didn't spoil but easily could this year. Several others like this.

- Lastly, benchmarks for the many competitive legislative races that will determine control of the State House. We also recruited in the blood-red MatSu and Kenai Peninsula, some in seats that haven't had a D run in years. Here are races I'm watching (highlights = tossups)

Buckle up yall. It's gonna be a looooong two-three weeks of counting!