Yesterday, Germany’s far-right AfD won 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its support from 2021. This fall, Albertans will vote in referendums on immigration and separation. To understand the connection, we need to understand “far-right populism”.

Far-right populism isn’t a synonym for “very conservative.” And calling something far-right shouldn’t be a way of saying “politics I really dislike.” It describes a particular worldview: one increasingly influential across Europe, the US, Canada, and Alberta.

Start with populism, which divides society into two moral camps: a virtuous, authentic “people” and a corrupt establishment that has betrayed them. For populists, politics should express the true will of the people, not accommodate competing interests.

That makes populism more than anti-elitism. As Cas Mudde argues, it is fundamentally anti-pluralist. Pluralism assumes society contains many legitimate identities, interests and values. And that nobody possesses a monopoly on defining “the common good." Populism disagrees.

Now add far-right. Far-right populism defines “the people” in exclusionary terms. They are threatened: from above by corrupt elites from below by supposedly undeserving groups from outside by immigrants, foreigners or “globalists” This is “us” versus “them” politics.

Left populists can also rail against elites. But they generally construct a more expansive “people”, including workers, ordinary citizens, the 99%. Far-right populists draw tighter boundaries around who genuinely belongs to the political community.

Far-right populism is therefore not the same thing as conservatism. Pluralist conservatives value order, institutional continuity, dispersed power and checks on government. Far-right populists are much more willing to scrap institutions when they frustrate “the people’s” will.

Which brings us back to Alberta. It is tempting to understand the current separatist movement simply as Western alienation turned up to 11: Ottawa mistreated Alberta → Albertans became angrier → some became separatists. That explains part of the story. But not nearly enough.

Western alienation is decades old. Why, then, has separatism become so politically salient (if unpopular) now? One answer is that Alberta separatism has become embedded in a much larger, transnational far-right populist movement. Brexit. MAGA. The Freedom Convoy. AfD.

The narratives differ, but their structure is remarkably similar. There is a virtuous people whose way of life is disappearing. Outsiders benefit at their expense. There are distant elites imposing unwanted change.And ordinary people cannot stop it without scrapping the system.

In Alberta, the “people” become hard-working, resource-producing, self-reliant Albertans. The corrupt establishment? Ottawa, the federal Liberals, “Laurentian elites,” academics, judges, bureaucrats and mainstream media. And outsiders increasingly include newcomers.

That explains why immigration and separation are in the same conversation this fall. On the surface, they are different policy questions. Viewed through a far-right populist lens, however, both ask versions of the same thing: Who belongs as "the people" and who gets power?

This is why treating Alberta separatism and anti-immigration only as grievances over public services, Equalization, or pipelines misses something important. It isn't just about what Alberta should get from Canada. It's about who counts as legitimate members of our society.

None of this means everyone voting for separation or immigration restrictions is a far-right populist. Voters arrive at the same position for very different reasons. The concept is most useful for understanding the movement: its leaders, organizations, narratives, strategies.

And this is why yesterday's AfD result reverberates well beyond Germany. Far-right populism isn't some European curiosity. It is transnational and takes different forms as it encounters different histories, institutions, identities and grievances. It's here in Alberta.

This fall's referendums are therefore about more than immigration or Alberta's place in Canada. They will also reveal something deeper about Alberta's political culture: Who are “the people”? Who belongs? And how much pluralism are we willing to abandon?