$ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW It feels like a battle. Let's evaluate what we know. That, and more, on this week's Weekly…

$ASTS - Is October 2026 really April 2024 in real time?

AST SpaceMobile Is the New Battleground Stock https://trib.al/5WyuVjv

$ASTS: The number of connected devices requiring 100% coverage is going to be absolutely mind blowing

$ASTS Halloween Special A walk down memory lane of prior market "shocks" from competitive moves. Spoiler alert, $ASTS grinds through and always goes higher. 1/n

STARLINK TO USE TOWERS TO ROLL OUT 800MHz SPECTRUM It appears Starlink won't be manufacturing low band satellites and will be relying on other methods to use the spectrum. This makes it even more likely that AST will be the JV choice as SpaceX wouldn't be able to provide connectivity with the MNO's lowband spectrum. $ASTS $SPCX $T $VZ $TMUS

This is what I was talking about last night on my Spaces. Starlink Mobile is going to attract the ire of not just the MNOs, but the device manufacturers. Are you going to just switch to Starlink Mobile if they offer a worse service at a higher price (their cost basis will be higher than the current MNOs)? Without all the device incentives, it will look worse. If Starlink comes out with a phone, are you ready to leave your existing walled garden? Will app developers make the things you want on a Starlink operating system? $ASTS

$ASTS $SPCX: Great point by @Clear Street regarding the required cadence of Starship launches to align with Starlink’s deployment plan. I don’t see many analysts covering this angle. Note that in addition to this, SpaceX not only needs to launch Starlink Mobile V2 payloads but also Starlink V3 for fixed broadband and their orbital data centers project. Much of SpaceX’s plan rests on ramping Starship which is currently unproven.

Deutsche Telekom's CEO warns other mobile carriers against forming a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) partnership with SpaceX. https://www.pcmag.com/news/t-mobiles-parent-company-fires-back-at-spacexs-starlink-mobile-challenge?taid=6ace6f199334400001312be7&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter…

$ASTS $TMUS: All references to Starlink have been removed from T-Mobile's T-Satellite FAQ section

$ASTS $SPCX: Yes. This is why sovereign satellite solutions are so important. @Abel Avellan thought this through and through with @AST SpaceMobile's transparent bent pipe architecture.

So you’re telling me $AMZN is now competing with MNOs for customers as well? So $ASTS has literally no competition? Jesus, just think about the margins if MNOs become dependent on ASTS. And the commercial side will account for only around 50% of revenue I’ve genuinely never seen such an asymmetric setup, if the thesis plays out. -RM

$ASTS: CLEAR STREET REITERATES $115 PRICE TARGET AND BUY RATING Summary AST faces launch constraints today, and the market is watching every slip closely. AST currently depends on Falcon 9, a rocket owned by competitor SpaceX (SPCX, Buy, $217 PT). That pressure could ease if other rockets return to service, particularly New Glenn, which carries up to eight BlueBirds per flight versus three on Falcon 9. Our model continues to see AST reaching commercial broadband service by mid-2027E. On the flip side, we think the market is underappreciating SpaceX's own launch risk. Its next-generation V2 phone satellites are how it hits its timeline, and they depend on Starship, which remains unproven. Flight 15 has already slipped from October 19 to November 8 at the earliest, and reaching service in early 2028E would require roughly 24 Starship flights in six months. Both companies are in this race and both carry launch risk. We think AST remains positioned about six months ahead of SPCX. Key Points SpaceX's phone leap is parked behind Starship, and the math is demanding. The real threat to AST is SpaceX's FCC-approved V2 constellation, which SpaceX says Starship will launch. We don't see the larger V2s flying in volume on Falcon 9. SpaceX's stated goal is initial global coverage of about 1,200 satellites within six months of starting launches in mid-2027, at roughly 50 per Starship. By our math, that is about 24 Starship flights in six months, roughly one a week, from a rocket with no regular cadence: Flight 15 has already slipped from October 19 to November 8 at the earliest. Service lands in early 2028 at best. New Glenn's December return is the pivotal event for AST. It has been grounded since the May 28 pad explosion. A clean return in December would reopen AST's high-capacity rocket, but we expect it to take until mid-2027 to turn into satellites on orbit. One flight carries up to eight BlueBirds, almost three Falcon 9 flights' worth. Vulcan helps indirectly by pulling Amazon and Space Force demand off Falcon 9. AST keeps winning where the contracts are signed. Japan's ministry initially selected the AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)-Rakuten Group (TSE: 4755, NC) venture for its ~$1B J-LEO program over a KDDI (TSE: 9433, NC)-SpaceX bid, and a U.S.-Japan joint statement then named the partnership. What would change our mind. A New Glenn return that slips, or Starship reaching a regular cadence well ahead of SpaceX's mid-2027 plan. Maintain $115 PT, Buy Rating: We maintain our Buy rating and $115 price target, implying 20x 2029E EBITDA of $2.0B which translates to ~$12x our revenue. ASTS sits on a fortified capital base with $3.7B in pro forma cash and restricted cash (inclusive of the July $1.15B convertible note issuance). Investment Thesis The AST-versus-SpaceX race is the market's favorite debate, and both sides carry launch risk. AST's is microanalyzed, with every BlueBird slip priced in real time. SpaceX's (SPCX, Buy, $217 PT) is underappreciated: its next-gen phone satellites depend on a Starship that has yet to prove a regular cadence, and its EchoStar spectrum doesn't arrive until around late 2027. Meanwhile, ASTS is becoming the "orbital tower," a wholesale, neutral-host provider for 60+ global MNOs rather than a retail competitor. Q2 confirmed the pivot from customer acquisition to system integration, with nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation, and planning, leaving launch cadence as the one bottleneck. Management is also de-risking the commercial timeline by stacking high-margin government and defense revenue (Radar/AI Edge) ahead of full D2D service, and the initial J-LEO selection in Japan is a blueprint for future sovereign wins. Valuation: We maintain our Buy rating and $115 PT. Shares trade at 26x our 2028E EBITDA and 11x our 2029E EBITDA, an attractive entry for an emerging wholesale infrastructure giant. Catalyst and Risks to Watch The next few weeks look mostly constructive for ASTS. The clearest positive is the FCC's October 29 vote on satellite spectrum leasing rules, which supports AST's carrier-partnership model. A firm launch date for BlueBirds 14–16 would also help settle the launch-pace debate. The negatives sit mainly on the SpaceX side. The October 24 SpaceX share unlock could pressure ASTS by association, and the FCC's October 29 vote on the 25 MHz auction gives SpaceX a path to build a network next to spectrum AST already uses. Two undated items could land at any time and cut both ways. A T-Mobile partnership decision in AST's favor would be the biggest upside surprise, while a SpaceX/Grain FCC filing seeking fast approval of the 800 MHz deal would be a sentiment negative.

後でまとめるけどJ-LEO交付はまもなく。現在調整中とのこと(MIC)。実際のユースケースの話もあって個人的には良かった。

What is most interesting about the recent $ASTS FCC filing on recommendations for WRC27 is Appendix A (2nd tweet). They have a few bands which are usually exclusive to Japan, namely B18/26 which maps to KDDI and B19 to DoCoMo. If you combine this with knowledge that B8 is being tested already, you might surmise that a JV for all Japanese carriers is a likely outcome from the JLEO project. Even without this data, hard to think the Japanese Government is going to fund JLEO and not expect the carriers that include 95% of Japanese subscribers (SoftBank, KDDI, and DoCoMo + MVNO using these 3) participate in some way. The erosion of Starlink Mobile's Tier 1 MNO's continues.

$ASTS The JV SatCo (Satellite Connect Europe) with @AST SpaceMobile as one 50% owner and Vodafone as the other, is indeed only half-European in ownership. 95% of the satellites are manufactured in the USA. But the BlueBird has a technology that makes it compliant to enable European operators to run a sovereign constellation. The wish and the wishful thinking in Europe is to have a constellation that is not Elon Musk, and to have a European-made alternative that Europe can control. Hence the talks of the JV with the old hags Thales, Aribus and Leonardo (yesteryeas's tech). And there is yet another project that has already commenced: IRIS2, where the LEO satellites will be manufactured in Charleroi, Belgium, and the MEO satellites in Kockelscheuer, Luxembourg. But they have just started. They are YEARS behind. Meanwhile, there will be an alternative constellation of BlueBirds commercially ready in 2027. Satellite Connect Europe has agreements in nearly all EU (and other European) countries with major MNOs to serve millions of customers. AST’s transparent bent-pipe architecture functions as a pure radio relay. Phone signals uplink to the satellite and immediately downlink to a local gateway inside the same country. The satellite never demodulates, processes, or routes user data. The local mobile operator retains the baseband units, core network, billing, and all traffic on its own soil under national jurisdiction. Versus: Starlink’s regenerative design demodulates and processes signals onboard, then uses inter-satellite links that can route data across borders under SpaceX control. Even though both firms are American, AST’s model leaves critical infrastructure and data sovereignty with the host country’s operators and regulators.

$ASTS Michael Pollack, Executive VP for Government Operations at ASTS, was Keynote speaker at the MILCOM 2026 Classified Programs event at John Hopkins The panel required security clearance to attend, his specifically required Secret level at least

$ASTS: @AST SpaceMobile’s @Jennifer Manner is making moves with the @Int’l Telecommunication Union

Four pads. Three landing ships. Up to 150 upper stages a year. It's a big commitment to New Glenn. https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/10/blue-origin-is-going-all-in-on-the-new-glenn-rocket/…

Strategic realignment / Incumbent pivot. This is the process by which established players—telecom executives, carriers, regulators, or other authorities—shift from skepticism, caution, or active resistance toward engagement, partnership, or support once a disruptive technology moves from speculative to material and the competitive or operational threat becomes concrete. The view among senior telecom executives and reflected in recent analyst notes is shifting more positively toward AST SpaceMobile as a preferred or complementary “neutral” D2D partner, mainly because of SpaceX’s competitive moves. Here is one example of a bear turning slightly positive. $ASTS